bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Islanders

NHL · Sunday, Mar 22 · 6:00 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final CBJ 0 – NYI 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CBJ0000
NYI1001
Team box
CBJ·NYI
26
shots
22
0 of 0
power play
0 of 3
40.0
faceoff %
60.0
24
hits
24
16
blocked shots
17
6
penalty minutes
0
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Bo HorvatNYI104
Anders LeeNYI013
Adam BoqvistNYI010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jet GreavesCBJ2221.955
Ilya SorokinNYI26261.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYI +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYI 1 · CBJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 47%, NYI 53% · Updated Mar 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYI 3.0 – 3.0 CBJ
Expected total
6.0
Blue JacketsThe matchupIslanders
+113Our fair odds−113
3.0Expected goals3.0
+0.03Power rating+0.01
3.3Goals / game2.9
3.1Allowed / game2.9
30.0Shots / game28.0
50.6Faceoff %52.0
19.2Hits / game19.3
37−32Season record39−31
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · NYI chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+11347%————
NYINew York Islanders−11353%————
Spreadabout even
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.1our margin————
NYINew York Islanders−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 5%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 19%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 24%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 10%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 11%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 6%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%
← CBJ wins byNYI wins by →
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more29%
New York Islanders wins by 3 or more19%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .909 save %, 2.35 GAAstarted
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .882 save %, 3.31 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·NYI
Mar 21 vs SEA
last game
Mar 21 at MTL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
CBJ·NYI
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
3.3
goals / game
2.9
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.9
37−32
season record
39−31
20−15
home record
18−13
17−17
away record
21−18
W4
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
30.0
shots / game
28.0
50.6
faceoff %
52.0
19.2
hits / game
19.3
14.8
blocked shots / game
14.7
5.0
takeaways / game
4.5
15.6
giveaways / game
14.5

Rating Trend

CBJ · NYI · 137 days
Columbus Blue JacketsNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYI 6−4
Feb 28at CBJNYI 4 − 3 OT
Dec 28, 2025at CBJCBJ 4 − 2
Nov 2, 2025at NYINYI 3 − 2
Apr 17, 2025at CBJCBJ 6 − 1
Mar 24, 2025at NYICBJ 4 − 3 SO
Jan 20, 2025at NYINYI 3 − 1
Oct 30, 2024at CBJCBJ 2 − 0
Apr 4, 2024at CBJNYI 4 − 2
Dec 7, 2023at NYINYI 7 − 3
Oct 28, 2023at CBJNYI 2 − 0

CBJ · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Mar 21vs SEA5 − 2W
Mar 19vs NYR6 − 3W
Mar 17vs CAR5 − 1W
Mar 14at PHI2 − 1W
Mar 12at FLA1 − 2L
Mar 10at TB5 − 2W
Mar 9vs LA4 − 5L
Mar 7vs UTAH4 − 5L
Mar 5vs FLA4 − 2W
Mar 3vs NSH3 − 2W

NYI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Mar 21at MTL3 − 7L
Mar 19at OTT2 − 3L
Mar 17at TOR3 − 1W
Mar 14vs CGY3 − 2W
Mar 13vs LA2 − 3L
Mar 10at STL4 − 3W
Mar 7at SJ2 − 1W
Mar 5at LA3 − 5L
Mar 4at ANA1 − 5L
Mar 1vs FLA5 − 4W