bayesRatings

Kraken at Blue Jackets

NHL · Saturday, Mar 21 · 4:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final SEA 2 – CBJ 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SEA1102
CBJ3115
Team box
SEA·CBJ
17
shots
28
1 of 1
power play
0 of 3
42.9
faceoff %
57.1
14
hits
15
13
blocked shots
13
6
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joey DaccordSEA2723.852
Elvis MerzlikinsCBJ1715.882

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
SEA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 3 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 43%, CBJ 57% · Updated Mar 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CBJ 3.3 – 2.9 SEA
Expected total
6.2
KrakenThe matchupBlue Jackets
+131Our fair odds−131
2.9Expected goals3.3
−0.09Power rating+0.03
2.9Goals / game3.3
3.1Allowed / game3.1
25.5Shots / game30.0
48.1Faceoff %50.5
18.8Hits / game19.3
31−37Season record36−32
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair43.2%56.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Kraken+13143%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−13157%————
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Kraken+0.4our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 1%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 4%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 9%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 8%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 20%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 22%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 13%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: 1%
← SEA wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more34%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more24%
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SEAJoey Daccord G · last 5 starts: .901 save %, 3.04 GAAstarted
CBJElvis Merzlikins G · last 5 starts: .866 save %, 3.16 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·CBJ
Mar 19 at NSH
last game
Mar 19 vs NYR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
SEA·CBJ
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
2.9
goals / game
3.3
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.1
31−37
season record
36−32
17−19
home record
19−15
14−18
away record
17−17
L2
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
7−3
25.5
shots / game
30.0
48.1
faceoff %
50.5
18.8
hits / game
19.3
15.9
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.7
takeaways / game
5.0
15.4
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

SEA · CBJ · 136 days
Seattle KrakenColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CBJ 4−5
Nov 11, 2025at SEACBJ 2 − 1 SO
Jan 9, 2025at CBJCBJ 6 − 2
Nov 12, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 2
Jan 28, 2024at SEASEA 4 − 2
Jan 13, 2024at CBJSEA 7 − 4
Mar 3, 2023at CBJSEA 4 − 2
Jan 28, 2023at SEASEA 3 − 1
Dec 11, 2021at SEACBJ 5 − 4 OT
Oct 16, 2021at CBJCBJ 2 − 1 OT

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 19at NSH1 − 3L
Mar 17vs TB2 − 6L
Mar 15vs FLA6 − 2W
Mar 14at VAN5 − 2W
Mar 12vs COL1 − 5L
Mar 10vs NSH2 − 4L
Mar 7vs OTT4 − 7L
Mar 4vs STL2 − 3L
Mar 2vs CAR2 − 1W
Feb 28vs VAN5 − 1W

CBJ · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Mar 19vs NYR6 − 3W
Mar 17vs CAR5 − 1W
Mar 14at PHI2 − 1W
Mar 12at FLA1 − 2L
Mar 10at TB5 − 2W
Mar 9vs LA4 − 5L
Mar 7vs UTAH4 − 5L
Mar 5vs FLA4 − 2W
Mar 3vs NSH3 − 2W
Mar 2at NYR5 − 4W