bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Lightning

NHL · Tuesday, Mar 10 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final CBJ 5 – TB 2
← NHL / Mar 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CBJ0325
TB1102
Team box
CBJ·TB
32
shots
18
2 of 4
power play
0 of 3
43.6
faceoff %
56.4
21
hits
29
15
blocked shots
8
13
penalty minutes
15
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Conor GarlandCBJ206
Sean MonahanCBJ025
Zach WerenskiCBJ020
Ivan ProvorovCBJ102
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ102
J.J. MoserTB102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Elvis MerzlikinsCBJ1816.889
Andrei VasilevskiyTB3127.871

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 1 · CBJ 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 37%, TB 63% · Updated Mar 10

Expected margin
TB by 0.9
Expected score
TB 3.9 – 2.9 CBJ
Expected total
6.8
Blue JacketsThe matchupLightning
+169Our fair odds−169
2.9Expected goals3.9
+0.01Power rating+0.38
3.2Goals / game3.6
3.2Allowed / game2.8
29.9Shots / game28.4
50.3Faceoff %47.0
19.6Hits / game20.0
32−31Season record39−23
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · TB chance
Our model fair37.2%62.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+16937%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−16963%————
SpreadTB by 0.9
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.9our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.8
Over6.8our total————
Under6.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.9 expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 7 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 20%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 16%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 10%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 4%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%
← CBJ wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more43%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more32%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.8 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 6.554%
Total over 7.535%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJElvis Merzlikins G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 2.78 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .918 save %, 2.43 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·TB
Mar 9 vs LA
last game
Mar 8 at BUF
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
CBJ·TB
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
3.2
goals / game
3.6
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.8
32−31
season record
39−23
17−15
home record
19−10
15−16
away record
20−13
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
29.9
shots / game
28.4
50.3
faceoff %
47.0
19.6
hits / game
20.0
14.8
blocked shots / game
12.6
4.9
takeaways / game
4.1
15.7
giveaways / game
14.7

Rating Trend

CBJ · TB · 125 days
Columbus Blue JacketsTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Jan 24at CBJCBJ 8 − 5
Oct 18, 2025at CBJCBJ 3 − 2
Mar 4, 2025at TBTB 6 − 2
Dec 17, 2024at TBTB 5 − 3
Nov 21, 2024at CBJCBJ 7 − 6 OT
Apr 9, 2024at TBTB 5 − 2
Feb 10, 2024at CBJTB 4 − 2
Nov 2, 2023at CBJCBJ 4 − 2
Jan 10, 2023at TBTB 6 − 3
Dec 15, 2022at TBTB 4 − 1

CBJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Mar 9vs LA4 − 5L
Mar 7vs UTAH4 − 5L
Mar 5vs FLA4 − 2W
Mar 3vs NSH3 − 2W
Mar 2at NYR5 − 4W
Feb 28vs NYI3 − 4L
Feb 26at BOS2 − 4L
Feb 4vs CHI4 − 0W
Feb 3at NJ3 − 0W
Jan 31at STL5 − 3W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 8at BUF7 − 8L
Mar 7at TOR5 − 2W
Mar 5at WPG1 − 4L
Mar 3at MIN1 − 5L
Feb 28vs BUF2 − 6L
Feb 26at CAR4 − 5L
Feb 25vs TOR4 − 2W
Feb 5vs FLA6 − 1W
Feb 3vs BUF4 − 3W
Feb 1vs BOS6 − 5W