bayesRatings

Lightning at Blue Jackets

NHL · Saturday, Jan 24 · 6:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final TB 5 – CBJ 8
← NHL / Jan 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TB2215
CBJ4228
Team box
TB·CBJ
30
shots
31
1 of 2
power play
1 of 2
61.0
faceoff %
39.0
22
hits
27
9
blocked shots
15
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Mason MarchmentCBJ313
Nikita KucherovTB133
Jake GuentzelTB214
Adam FantilliCBJ123
Charlie CoyleCBJ122
Anthony CirelliTB121
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jonas JohanssonTB2923.793
Jet GreavesCBJ3025.833

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
TB +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 3 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 58%, CBJ 42% · Updated Jan 24

Expected margin
TB by 0.8
Expected score
TB 3.6 – 2.8 CBJ
Expected total
6.4
LightningThe matchupBlue Jackets
−140Our fair odds+140
3.6Expected goals2.8
+0.43Power rating−0.09
3.5Goals / game3.0
2.5Allowed / game3.3
27.4Shots / game30.2
46.2Faceoff %50.5
18.9Hits / game19.7
32−17Season record23−27
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair58.3%41.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning−14058%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+14042%————
SpreadTB by 0.8
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.8our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.8 expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 4%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 9%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 16%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 23%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 7 goals: <1%
← TB wins byCBJ wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more43%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more31%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBJonas Johansson G · last 5 starts: .872 save %, 2.91 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .913 save %, 2.38 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CBJ
Jan 23 at CHI
last game
Jan 22 vs DAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
TB·CBJ
+0.43
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
3.5
goals / game
3.0
2.5
goals allowed / game
3.3
32−17
season record
23−27
13−9
home record
12−12
19−8
away record
11−15
W3
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
5−5
27.4
shots / game
30.2
46.2
faceoff %
50.5
18.9
hits / game
19.7
12.7
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.1
takeaways / game
4.9
14.7
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

TB · CBJ · 99 days
Tampa Bay LightningColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CBJ 3−7
Oct 18, 2025at CBJCBJ 3 − 2
Mar 4, 2025at TBTB 6 − 2
Dec 17, 2024at TBTB 5 − 3
Nov 21, 2024at CBJCBJ 7 − 6 OT
Apr 9, 2024at TBTB 5 − 2
Feb 10, 2024at CBJTB 4 − 2
Nov 2, 2023at CBJCBJ 4 − 2
Jan 10, 2023at TBTB 6 − 3
Dec 15, 2022at TBTB 4 − 1
Oct 14, 2022at CBJTB 5 − 2

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
Jan 23at CHI2 − 1W
Jan 20vs SJ4 − 1W
Jan 18at DAL4 − 1W
Jan 16at STL2 − 3L
Jan 13at PIT2 − 1W
Jan 12at PHI5 − 1W
Jan 10at PHI7 − 2W
Jan 6vs COL4 − 2W
Jan 3at SJ7 − 3W
Jan 1at LA5 − 3W

CBJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 22vs DAL1 − 0W
Jan 20vs OTT1 − 4L
Jan 17at PIT4 − 3W
Jan 15vs VAN4 − 1W
Jan 13vs CGY5 − 3W
Jan 11at UTAH3 − 2W
Jan 10at COL0 − 4L
Jan 8at VGK3 − 5L
Jan 6at SJ2 − 5L
Jan 4vs PIT4 − 5L