bayesRatings

Lightning at Blackhawks

NHL · Friday, Jan 23 · 6:00 PM CT · United Center · Final TB 2 – CHI 1
← NHL / Jan 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
TB010012
CHI100001
Team box
TB·CHI
31
shots
19
0 of 3
power play
0 of 3
52.6
faceoff %
47.4
18
hits
16
10
blocked shots
13
11
penalty minutes
11
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Ryan GreeneCHI101
Nikita KucherovTB101
Anthony CirelliTB012
Brandon HagelTB012
Nick LardisCHI011
Oliver MooreCHI010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Andrei VasilevskiyTB1918.947
Arvid SoderblomCHI3130.968

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +3
TB +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: CHI 1 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 64%, CHI 36% · Updated Jan 23

Expected margin
TB by 1.3
Expected score
TB 3.6 – 2.4 CHI
Expected total
6.0
LightningThe matchupBlackhawks
−179Our fair odds+179
3.6Expected goals2.4
+0.43Power rating−0.34
3.5Goals / game2.8
2.5Allowed / game3.1
27.3Shots / game25.1
46.1Faceoff %47.0
18.9Hits / game18.0
31−17Season record21−29
9−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CHI chance
Our model fair64.1%35.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning−17964%————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+17936%————
SpreadTB by 1.3
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.3our margin————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.3 expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 5%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 19%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 21%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 5%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 4%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%
← TB wins byCHI wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more50%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more37%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more12%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.541%
Total over 7.524%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .937 save %, 1.36 GAAstarted
CHIArvid Soderblom G · last 5 starts: .856 save %, 3.81 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CHI
Jan 20 vs SJ
last game
Jan 22 at CAR
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
TB·CHI
+0.43
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
3.5
goals / game
2.8
2.5
goals allowed / game
3.1
31−17
season record
21−29
13−9
home record
11−16
18−8
away record
10−13
W2
streak
W2
9−1
last 10
6−4
27.3
shots / game
25.1
46.1
faceoff %
47.0
18.9
hits / game
18.0
12.8
blocked shots / game
12.3
4.1
takeaways / game
5.2
14.7
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

TB · CHI · 98 days
Tampa Bay LightningChicago Blackhawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHI 3−6
Oct 23, 2025at TBCHI 3 − 2
Jan 28, 2025at TBCHI 4 − 1
Jan 24, 2025at CHITB 4 − 3 OT
Nov 16, 2023at CHITB 4 − 2
Nov 9, 2023at TBCHI 5 − 3
Mar 11, 2023at TBTB 3 − 1
Jan 3, 2023at CHITB 4 − 1
Apr 1, 2022at TBTB 5 − 2
Mar 6, 2022at CHITB 6 − 3

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
Jan 20vs SJ4 − 1W
Jan 18at DAL4 − 1W
Jan 16at STL2 − 3L
Jan 13at PIT2 − 1W
Jan 12at PHI5 − 1W
Jan 10at PHI7 − 2W
Jan 6vs COL4 − 2W
Jan 3at SJ7 − 3W
Jan 1at LA5 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025at ANA4 − 3W

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 22at CAR4 − 3W
Jan 19vs WPG2 − 0W
Jan 17vs BOS2 − 5L
Jan 15vs CGY1 − 3L
Jan 12vs EDM1 − 4L
Jan 10at NSH3 − 0W
Jan 9vs WSH1 − 5L
Jan 7vs STL7 − 3W
Jan 4vs VGK3 − 2W
Jan 3at WSH3 − 2W