bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Capitals

NHL · Saturday, Jan 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final CHI 3 – WSH 2
← NHL / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
CHI110013
WSH101002
Team box
CHI·WSH
33
shots
34
1 of 2
power play
0 of 1
49.0
faceoff %
51.0
11
hits
23
9
blocked shots
19
2
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Ryan LeonardWSH103
Dylan StromeWSH102
Teuvo TeravainenCHI101
Ryan DonatoCHI101
Andre BurakovskyCHI014
Ethen FrankWSH014
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Spencer KnightCHI3432.941
Logan ThompsonWSH3331.939

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
CHI +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: WSH 0 · CHI 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 33%, WSH 67% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
WSH by 1.2
Expected score
WSH 3.8 – 2.5 CHI
Expected total
6.3
BlackhawksThe matchupCapitals
+201Our fair odds−201
2.5Expected goals3.8
−0.42Power rating+0.13
2.8Goals / game3.2
3.2Allowed / game2.9
25.0Shots / game29.2
46.3Faceoff %48.8
18.1Hits / game19.4
15−25Season record21−20
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · WSH chance
Our model fair33.2%66.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+20133%————
WSHWashington Capitals−20167%————
SpreadWSH by 1.2
CHIChicago Blackhawks+1.2our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Capitals by 1.2 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 5%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 6%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 18%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 19%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 13%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 18%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 5%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 7 goals: 1%
← CHI wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more48%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more35%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more14%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .877 save %, 3.06 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .867 save %, 4.23 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·WSH
Jan 1 vs DAL
last game
Jan 1 at OTT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
CHI·WSH
−0.42
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
2.8
goals / game
3.2
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.9
15−25
season record
21−20
8−12
home record
12−9
7−13
away record
9−11
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
3−7
25.0
shots / game
29.2
46.3
faceoff %
48.8
18.1
hits / game
19.4
12.5
blocked shots / game
15.3
5.1
takeaways / game
4.5
16.2
giveaways / game
15.2

Rating Trend

CHI · WSH · 78 days
Chicago BlackhawksWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · WSH 5−3
Apr 4, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 3
Dec 17, 2024at CHICHI 3 − 2
Mar 9, 2024at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Dec 10, 2023at CHIWSH 4 − 2
Mar 23, 2023at WSHWSH 6 − 1
Dec 13, 2022at CHIWSH 7 − 3
Dec 15, 2021at CHICHI 5 − 4 OT
Dec 2, 2021at WSHCHI 4 − 3 SO

CHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Jan 1vs DAL4 − 3W
Dec 30, 2025vs NYI2 − 3L
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 7L
Dec 27, 2025at DAL4 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025vs PHI1 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025at OTT4 − 6L
Dec 18, 2025at MTL1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025at TOR2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs DET0 − 4L
Dec 12, 2025at STL2 − 3L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jan 1at OTT3 − 4L
Dec 31, 2025vs NYR6 − 3W
Dec 29, 2025at FLA3 − 5L
Dec 27, 2025at NJ4 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025vs NYR3 − 7L
Dec 21, 2025at DET2 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025vs DET2 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR4 − 0W
Dec 16, 2025at MIN0 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at WPG1 − 5L