bayesRatings

Stars at Blackhawks

NHL · Thursday, Jan 1 · 7:30 PM CT · United Center · Final DAL 3 – CHI 4
← NHL / Jan 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DAL1023
CHI1214
Team box
DAL·CHI
25
shots
21
0 of 1
power play
2 of 4
53.5
faceoff %
46.5
29
hits
20
16
blocked shots
17
8
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Ilya MikheyevCHI203
Matt DucheneDAL114
Jason RobertsonDAL113
Mikko RantanenDAL112
Ryan DonatoCHI022
Andre BurakovskyCHI020
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jake OettingerDAL2117.810
Spencer KnightCHI2522.880

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +3
DAL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CHI 3 · DAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 64%, CHI 36% · Updated Jan 1

Expected margin
DAL by 1.1
Expected score
DAL 3.7 – 2.5 CHI
Expected total
6.2
StarsThe matchupBlackhawks
−181Our fair odds+181
3.7Expected goals2.5
+0.35Power rating−0.42
3.5Goals / game2.8
2.7Allowed / game3.3
25.3Shots / game25.1
52.3Faceoff %46.3
18.3Hits / game18.0
25−15Season record14−25
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · CHI chance
Our model fair64.4%35.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Stars−18164%————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+18136%————
SpreadDAL by 1.1
DALDallas Stars−1.1our margin————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Stars by 1.1 expected
Dallas Stars by 7 goals: <1%Dallas Stars by 6 goals: 1%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 4%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 11%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 17%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 13%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 18%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 20%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 6%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 6%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%
← DAL wins byCHI wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more47%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more34%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more15%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DALJake Oettinger G · last 5 starts: .913 save %, 2.59 GAAstarted
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .879 save %, 3.07 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·CHI
Dec 31, 2025 vs BUF
last game
Dec 30, 2025 vs NYI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
DAL·CHI
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.42
3.5
goals / game
2.8
2.7
goals allowed / game
3.3
25−15
season record
14−25
12−8
home record
7−12
13−7
away record
7−13
L3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
2−8
25.3
shots / game
25.1
52.3
faceoff %
46.3
18.3
hits / game
18.0
15.4
blocked shots / game
12.4
4.7
takeaways / game
5.0
14.7
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

DAL · CHI · 76 days
Dallas StarsChicago Blackhawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 3−7
Dec 27, 2025at DALCHI 4 − 3 SO
Dec 29, 2024at CHIDAL 5 − 1
Nov 27, 2024at CHICHI 6 − 2
Nov 7, 2024at DALDAL 3 − 1
Oct 26, 2024at DALDAL 4 − 2
Apr 6, 2024at CHICHI 3 − 2
Jan 13, 2024at CHIDAL 3 − 1
Dec 31, 2023at DALDAL 8 − 1
Dec 29, 2023at DALDAL 5 − 4 OT
Mar 28, 2023at CHIDAL 4 − 1

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Dec 31, 2025vs BUF1 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs CHI3 − 4L
Dec 23, 2025at DET3 − 4L
Dec 21, 2025vs TOR5 − 1W
Dec 19, 2025at ANA8 − 3W
Dec 18, 2025at SJ5 − 3W
Dec 15, 2025vs LA4 − 1W
Dec 13, 2025vs FLA0 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025at MIN2 − 5L
Dec 9, 2025at WPG4 − 3W

CHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Dec 30, 2025vs NYI2 − 3L
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 7L
Dec 27, 2025at DAL4 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025vs PHI1 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025at OTT4 − 6L
Dec 18, 2025at MTL1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025at TOR2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs DET0 − 4L
Dec 12, 2025at STL2 − 3L
Dec 10, 2025vs NYR3 − 0W