bayesRatings

Stars at Red Wings

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 5:30 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final DAL 3 – DET 4
← NHL / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
DAL02103
DET10214
Team box
DAL·DET
22
shots
25
2 of 5
power play
2 of 3
48.2
faceoff %
51.8
20
hits
16
8
blocked shots
16
6
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Lucas RaymondDET033
Dylan LarkinDET203
James van RiemsdykDET111
Moritz SeiderDET024
Mikko RantanenDAL020
Emmitt FinnieDET105
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Casey DeSmithDAL2521.840
John GibsonDET2219.864

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
DAL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: DET 1 · DAL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 56%, DET 44% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 0.5
Expected score
DAL 3.4 – 2.9 DET
Expected total
6.3
StarsThe matchupRed Wings
−128Our fair odds+128
3.4Expected goals2.9
+0.39Power rating−0.03
3.6Goals / game3.1
2.6Allowed / game3.2
25.2Shots / game29.6
52.6Faceoff %51.7
18.4Hits / game17.9
25−12Season record21−16
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · DET chance
Our model fair56.1%43.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Stars−12856%————
DETDetroit Red Wings+12844%————
SpreadDAL by 0.5
DALDallas Stars−0.5our margin————
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Stars by 0.5 expected
Dallas Stars by 6 goals: 1%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 3%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 8%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 14%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 11%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 19%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 22%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 8%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 8%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 4%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%
← DAL wins byDET wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more37%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more26%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DALCasey DeSmith G · last 5 starts: .923 save %, 2.20 GAAstarted
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .952 save %, 1.40 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·DET
Dec 21, 2025 vs TOR
last game
Dec 21, 2025 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
DAL·DET
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
3.6
goals / game
3.1
2.6
goals allowed / game
3.2
25−12
season record
21−16
12−6
home record
11−8
13−6
away record
10−8
W4
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
7−3
25.2
shots / game
29.6
52.6
faceoff %
51.7
18.4
hits / game
17.9
15.7
blocked shots / game
16.7
4.7
takeaways / game
4.3
14.6
giveaways / game
16.3

Rating Trend

DAL · DET · 70 days
Dallas StarsDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DET 1−7
Apr 14, 2025at DETDET 6 − 4
Jan 19, 2025at DALDAL 4 − 1
Jan 23, 2024at DETDAL 5 − 4
Dec 11, 2023at DALDAL 6 − 3
Apr 10, 2023at DETDAL 6 − 1
Dec 10, 2022at DALDAL 3 − 2 OT
Jan 21, 2022at DETDAL 5 − 4 OT
Nov 16, 2021at DALDAL 5 − 2

DAL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Dec 21, 2025vs TOR5 − 1W
Dec 19, 2025at ANA8 − 3W
Dec 18, 2025at SJ5 − 3W
Dec 15, 2025vs LA4 − 1W
Dec 13, 2025vs FLA0 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025at MIN2 − 5L
Dec 9, 2025at WPG4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT3 − 2W
Dec 5, 2025vs SJ4 − 1W
Dec 3, 2025at NJ3 − 0W

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Dec 21, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH5 − 2W
Dec 17, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs NYI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at CHI4 − 0W
Dec 11, 2025at EDM1 − 4L
Dec 10, 2025at CGY4 − 3W
Dec 8, 2025at VAN4 − 0W
Dec 6, 2025at SEA4 − 3W
Dec 4, 2025at CBJ5 − 6L