bayesRatings

Red Wings at Capitals

NHL · Saturday, Dec 20 · 11:30 AM CT · Capital One Arena · Final DET 5 – WSH 2
← NHL / Dec 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DET1315
WSH0112
Team box
DET·WSH
41
shots
26
0 of 3
power play
0 of 2
43.1
faceoff %
56.9
10
hits
32
19
blocked shots
18
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Moritz SeiderDET113
Simon EdvinssonDET022
Andrew CoppDET021
James van RiemsdykDET106
Dylan LarkinDET103
Aliaksei ProtasWSH102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
John GibsonDET2624.923
Logan ThompsonWSH4036.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
DET +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: WSH 0 · DET 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 39%, WSH 61% · Updated Dec 20, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 0.9
Expected score
WSH 3.6 – 2.6 DET
Expected total
6.2
Red WingsThe matchupCapitals
+153Our fair odds−153
2.6Expected goals3.6
−0.04Power rating+0.22
3.1Goals / game3.2
3.3Allowed / game2.6
29.4Shots / game29.2
52.0Faceoff %47.8
18.2Hits / game19.7
19−16Season record19−15
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · WSH chance
Our model fair39.5%60.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+15339%————
WSHWashington Capitals−15361%————
SpreadWSH by 0.9
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.9our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Capitals by 0.9 expected
Detroit Red Wings by 7 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 3%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 6%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 6%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 22%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 17%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 17%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 10%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 4%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 7 goals: <1%
← DET wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more44%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more32%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more16%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .946 save %, 1.60 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .942 save %, 1.94 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·WSH
Dec 17, 2025 vs UTAH
last game
Dec 18, 2025 vs TOR
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
DET·WSH
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
3.1
goals / game
3.2
3.3
goals allowed / game
2.6
19−16
season record
19−15
10−8
home record
11−7
9−8
away record
8−8
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
29.4
shots / game
29.2
52.0
faceoff %
47.8
18.2
hits / game
19.7
16.6
blocked shots / game
14.6
4.2
takeaways / game
4.6
16.2
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

DET · WSH · 67 days
Detroit Red WingsWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 6−4
Mar 18, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Mar 7, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Dec 29, 2024at DETDET 4 − 2
Apr 9, 2024at DETWSH 2 − 1
Mar 26, 2024at WSHWSH 4 − 3 OT
Feb 27, 2024at DETDET 8 − 3
Feb 21, 2023at WSHDET 3 − 1
Dec 19, 2022at WSHWSH 4 − 3 OT
Nov 3, 2022at DETDET 3 − 1
Dec 31, 2021at DETWSH 3 − 1

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 17, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs NYI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at CHI4 − 0W
Dec 11, 2025at EDM1 − 4L
Dec 10, 2025at CGY4 − 3W
Dec 8, 2025at VAN4 − 0W
Dec 6, 2025at SEA4 − 3W
Dec 4, 2025at CBJ5 − 6L
Dec 2, 2025vs BOS5 − 4W
Nov 29, 2025at BOS2 − 3L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR4 − 0W
Dec 16, 2025at MIN0 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at WPG1 − 5L
Dec 11, 2025vs CAR2 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs CBJ2 − 0W
Dec 5, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025at SJ7 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025at LA3 − 1W
Nov 30, 2025at NYI4 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025vs TOR4 − 2W