bayesRatings

Capitals at Red Wings

NHL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final WSH 2 – DET 3
← NHL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
WSH10102
DET02013
Team box
WSH·DET
33
shots
27
0 of 1
power play
1 of 2
49.1
faceoff %
50.9
11
hits
16
13
blocked shots
18
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Ethen FrankWSH203
Andrew CoppDET022
Dylan StromeWSH022
Emmitt FinnieDET021
Lucas RaymondDET105
John LeonardDET102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Charlie LindgrenWSH2724.889
Cam TalbotDET3331.939

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
WSH +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: DET 1 · WSH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 52%, DET 48% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.4 – 2.9 DET
Expected total
6.3
CapitalsThe matchupRed Wings
−110Our fair odds+110
3.4Expected goals2.9
+0.22Power rating−0.04
3.2Goals / game3.1
2.7Allowed / game3.2
29.1Shots / game29.7
48.1Faceoff %51.7
20.0Hits / game17.9
19−16Season record20−16
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · DET chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals−11052%————
DETDetroit Red Wings+11048%————
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Capitals−0.4our margin————
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 3%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 8%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 14%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 17%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 25%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 8%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 9%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 4%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byDET wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more36%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more25%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHCharlie Lindgren G · last 5 starts: .878 save %, 3.01 GAAstarted
DETCam Talbot G · last 5 starts: .860 save %, 3.75 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·DET
Dec 20, 2025 vs DET
last game
Dec 20, 2025 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
WSH·DET
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.2
goals / game
3.1
2.7
goals allowed / game
3.2
19−16
season record
20−16
11−8
home record
10−8
8−8
away record
10−8
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
29.1
shots / game
29.7
48.1
faceoff %
51.7
20.0
hits / game
17.9
14.7
blocked shots / game
16.6
4.5
takeaways / game
4.2
15.6
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

WSH · DET · 68 days
Washington CapitalsDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 5−5
Dec 20, 2025at WSHDET 5 − 2
Mar 18, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Mar 7, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Dec 29, 2024at DETDET 4 − 2
Apr 9, 2024at DETWSH 2 − 1
Mar 26, 2024at WSHWSH 4 − 3 OT
Feb 27, 2024at DETDET 8 − 3
Feb 21, 2023at WSHDET 3 − 1
Dec 19, 2022at WSHWSH 4 − 3 OT
Nov 3, 2022at DETDET 3 − 1

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 20, 2025vs DET2 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR4 − 0W
Dec 16, 2025at MIN0 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at WPG1 − 5L
Dec 11, 2025vs CAR2 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs CBJ2 − 0W
Dec 5, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025at SJ7 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025at LA3 − 1W
Nov 30, 2025at NYI4 − 1W

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Dec 20, 2025at WSH5 − 2W
Dec 17, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs NYI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at CHI4 − 0W
Dec 11, 2025at EDM1 − 4L
Dec 10, 2025at CGY4 − 3W
Dec 8, 2025at VAN4 − 0W
Dec 6, 2025at SEA4 − 3W
Dec 4, 2025at CBJ5 − 6L
Dec 2, 2025vs BOS5 − 4W