bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Stars

NHL · Saturday, Dec 27 · 7:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final CHI 4 – DAL 3
← NHL / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
CHI111014
DAL111003
Team box
CHI·DAL
33
shots
31
0 of 2
power play
0 of 4
43.1
faceoff %
56.9
29
hits
16
13
blocked shots
14
8
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Mikko RantanenDAL128
Wyatt JohnstonDAL032
Tyler BertuzziCHI203
Alex VlasicCHI020
Justin HryckowianDAL102
Jason DickinsonCHI101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Arvid SoderblomCHI3128.903
Jake OettingerDAL3330.909

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +3
CHI +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: DAL 1 · CHI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 29%, DAL 71% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 1.6
Expected score
DAL 4.0 – 2.5 CHI
Expected total
6.5
BlackhawksThe matchupStars
+248Our fair odds−248
2.5Expected goals4.0
−0.37Power rating+0.39
2.8Goals / game3.6
3.2Allowed / game2.7
25.1Shots / game25.1
46.4Faceoff %52.5
17.4Hits / game18.4
13−23Season record25−13
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · DAL chance
Our model fair28.7%71.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+24829%————
DALDallas Stars−24871%————
SpreadDAL by 1.6
CHIChicago Blackhawks+1.6our margin————
DALDallas Stars−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Stars by 1.6 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 8 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 4%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 4%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 17%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 18%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 13%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 20%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 13%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 6%Dallas Stars by 6 goals: 2%Dallas Stars by 7 goals: 1%Dallas Stars by 8 goals: <1%
← CHI wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more55%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more42%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more10%
Decided by one goal34%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.549%
Total over 7.531%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHIArvid Soderblom G · last 5 starts: .835 save %, 5.87 GAAstarted
DALJake Oettinger G · last 5 starts: .918 save %, 2.41 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·DAL
Dec 23, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Dec 23, 2025 at DET
3 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
CHI·DAL
−0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
2.8
goals / game
3.6
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.7
13−23
season record
25−13
7−10
home record
12−6
6−13
away record
13−7
L6
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
7−3
25.1
shots / game
25.1
46.4
faceoff %
52.5
17.4
hits / game
18.4
12.5
blocked shots / game
15.5
5.0
takeaways / game
4.7
16.4
giveaways / game
14.6

Rating Trend

CHI · DAL · 71 days
Chicago BlackhawksDallas Stars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 8−2
Dec 29, 2024at CHIDAL 5 − 1
Nov 27, 2024at CHICHI 6 − 2
Nov 7, 2024at DALDAL 3 − 1
Oct 26, 2024at DALDAL 4 − 2
Apr 6, 2024at CHICHI 3 − 2
Jan 13, 2024at CHIDAL 3 − 1
Dec 31, 2023at DALDAL 8 − 1
Dec 29, 2023at DALDAL 5 − 4 OT
Mar 28, 2023at CHIDAL 4 − 1
Mar 2, 2023at CHIDAL 5 − 2

CHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Dec 23, 2025vs PHI1 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025at OTT4 − 6L
Dec 18, 2025at MTL1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025at TOR2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs DET0 − 4L
Dec 12, 2025at STL2 − 3L
Dec 10, 2025vs NYR3 − 0W
Dec 7, 2025at ANA1 − 7L
Dec 6, 2025at LA0 − 6L
Dec 4, 2025at LA2 − 1W

DAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 23, 2025at DET3 − 4L
Dec 21, 2025vs TOR5 − 1W
Dec 19, 2025at ANA8 − 3W
Dec 18, 2025at SJ5 − 3W
Dec 15, 2025vs LA4 − 1W
Dec 13, 2025vs FLA0 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025at MIN2 − 5L
Dec 9, 2025at WPG4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT3 − 2W
Dec 5, 2025vs SJ4 − 1W