bayesRatings

Rangers at Capitals

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final NYR 7 – WSH 3
← NHL / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR1157
WSH0303
Team box
NYR·WSH
21
shots
32
1 of 4
power play
1 of 3
54.2
faceoff %
45.8
18
hits
13
18
blocked shots
17
6
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Taylor RaddyshNYR213
Vincent TrocheckNYR212
Will CuylleNYR121
Artemi PanarinNYR114
Alexis LafreniereNYR112
Aliaksei ProtasWSH111
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Igor ShesterkinNYR3229.906
Logan ThompsonWSH2014.700

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
NYR +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: WSH 1 · NYR 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 41%, WSH 59% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 0.5
Expected score
WSH 3.1 – 2.6 NYR
Expected total
5.7
RangersThe matchupCapitals
+144Our fair odds−144
2.6Expected goals3.1
−0.03Power rating+0.17
2.6Goals / game3.2
2.7Allowed / game2.7
26.2Shots / game29.2
54.2Faceoff %48.1
26.1Hits / game19.8
18−20Season record19−17
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · WSH chance
Our model fair41.0%59.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+14441%————
WSHWashington Capitals−14459%————
SpreadWSH by 0.5
NYRNew York Rangers+0.5our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Capitals by 0.5 expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 4%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 8%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 8%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 20%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 24%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 14%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 7%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more35%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more24%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .882 save %, 2.92 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .937 save %, 2.18 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·WSH
Dec 21, 2025 at NSH
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
NYR·WSH
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
2.6
goals / game
3.2
2.7
goals allowed / game
2.7
18−20
season record
19−17
5−13
home record
11−8
13−7
away record
8−9
L1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
26.2
shots / game
29.2
54.2
faceoff %
48.1
26.1
hits / game
19.8
14.8
blocked shots / game
14.7
4.5
takeaways / game
4.5
14.7
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

NYR · WSH · 70 days
New York RangersWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Oct 12, 2025at NYRWSH 1 − 0
Mar 5, 2025at NYRWSH 3 − 2 OT
Jan 4, 2025at WSHWSH 7 − 4
Oct 29, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 3
Apr 28, 2024at WSHNYR 4 − 2post
Apr 26, 2024at WSHNYR 3 − 1post
Apr 23, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 3post
Apr 21, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 1post
Jan 14, 2024at NYRNYR 2 − 1
Jan 13, 2024at WSHWSH 3 − 2

NYR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 21, 2025at NSH1 − 2L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI5 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025at STL2 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025vs VAN0 − 3L
Dec 15, 2025vs ANA1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 10, 2025at CHI0 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 6, 2025vs COL2 − 3L
Dec 4, 2025at OTT4 − 2W

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 21, 2025at DET2 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025vs DET2 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR4 − 0W
Dec 16, 2025at MIN0 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at WPG1 − 5L
Dec 11, 2025vs CAR2 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs CBJ2 − 0W
Dec 5, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025at SJ7 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025at LA3 − 1W