bayesRatings

Flyers at Rangers

NHL · Saturday, Dec 20 · 11:30 AM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final PHI 4 – NYR 5
← NHL / Dec 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
PHI040004
NYR112015
Team box
PHI·NYR
32
shots
27
2 of 5
power play
1 of 4
50.8
faceoff %
49.2
19
hits
23
21
blocked shots
4
13
penalty minutes
15
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Artemi PanarinNYR207
Mika ZibanejadNYR113
Travis SanheimPHI112
Denver BarkeyPHI022
Vincent TrocheckNYR104
Rodrigo AbolsPHI102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Samuel ErssonPHI2723.852
Igor ShesterkinNYR3228.875

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +3
PHI +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: NYR 1 · PHI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 43%, NYR 57% · Updated Dec 20, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.0 – 2.7 PHI
Expected total
5.7
FlyersThe matchupRangers
+132Our fair odds−132
2.7Expected goals3.0
−0.12Power rating−0.00
3.0Goals / game2.5
2.8Allowed / game2.7
24.9Shots / game26.4
49.4Faceoff %54.1
22.1Hits / game26.4
17−16Season record17−19
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · NYR chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+13243%————
NYRNew York Rangers−13257%————
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+0.3our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 1%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 4%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 9%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 9%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 19%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 25%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 12%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%
← PHI wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more31%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more21%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PHISamuel Ersson G · last 5 starts: .890 save %, 2.94 GAAstarted
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 2.75 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·NYR
Dec 18, 2025 at BUF
last game
Dec 18, 2025 at STL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
PHI·NYR
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
3.0
goals / game
2.5
2.8
goals allowed / game
2.7
17−16
season record
17−19
10−9
home record
4−13
7−7
away record
13−6
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
24.9
shots / game
26.4
49.4
faceoff %
54.1
22.1
hits / game
26.4
14.8
blocked shots / game
15.0
4.3
takeaways / game
4.5
14.8
giveaways / game
14.4

Rating Trend

PHI · NYR · 67 days
Philadelphia FlyersNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 7−3
Apr 9, 2025at NYRPHI 8 − 5
Jan 23, 2025at NYRNYR 6 − 1
Nov 29, 2024at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Apr 11, 2024at NYRPHI 4 − 1
Mar 26, 2024at NYRNYR 6 − 5 OT
Feb 24, 2024at PHINYR 2 − 1
Nov 24, 2023at PHINYR 3 − 1
Mar 1, 2023at PHINYR 3 − 2 OT
Dec 17, 2022at PHINYR 6 − 3
Nov 1, 2022at NYRNYR 1 − 0 OT

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 18, 2025at BUF3 − 5L
Dec 16, 2025at MTL4 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025at CAR2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs CAR3 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 9, 2025vs SJ4 − 1W
Dec 7, 2025vs COL2 − 3L
Dec 3, 2025vs BUF5 − 2W
Dec 1, 2025vs PIT1 − 5L
Nov 29, 2025at NJ5 − 3W

NYR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 18, 2025at STL2 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025vs VAN0 − 3L
Dec 15, 2025vs ANA1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 10, 2025at CHI0 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 6, 2025vs COL2 − 3L
Dec 4, 2025at OTT4 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025vs DAL3 − 2W
Nov 29, 2025vs TB1 − 4L