bayesRatings

Rangers at Blues

NHL · Thursday, Dec 18 · 7:00 PM CT · Enterprise Center · Final NYR 2 – STL 1
← NHL / Dec 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
NYR01012
STL10001
Team box
NYR·STL
31
shots
27
1 of 2
power play
0 of 3
47.5
faceoff %
52.5
24
hits
13
17
blocked shots
7
8
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
J.T. MillerNYR104
Gabe PerreaultNYR101
Jonatan BerggrenSTL101
Vincent TrocheckNYR014
Vladislav GavrikovNYR013
Noah LabaNYR011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Igor ShesterkinNYR2726.963
Jordan BinningtonSTL3129.935

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: STL 1 · NYR 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 49%, STL 51% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.1 – 2.9 STL
Expected total
5.9
RangersThe matchupBlues
+105Our fair odds−105
3.1Expected goals2.9
−0.00Power rating−0.12
2.5Goals / game2.5
2.7Allowed / game3.5
26.3Shots / game25.3
54.3Faceoff %50.5
26.5Hits / game23.4
16−19Season record13−22
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+10549%————
STLSt. Louis Blues−10551%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers−0.2our margin————
STLSt. Louis Blues+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 13%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 17%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 26%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 9%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 9%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 4%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 1%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins bySTL wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more33%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more22%
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 2.97 GAAstarted
STLJordan Binnington G · last 5 starts: .852 save %, 4.25 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·STL
Dec 16, 2025 vs VAN
last game
Dec 17, 2025 vs WPG
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
NYR·STL
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
2.5
goals / game
2.5
2.7
goals allowed / game
3.5
16−19
season record
13−22
4−13
home record
7−12
12−6
away record
6−10
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
26.3
shots / game
25.3
54.3
faceoff %
50.5
26.5
hits / game
23.4
14.9
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.5
takeaways / game
4.2
14.3
giveaways / game
13.9

Rating Trend

NYR · STL · 65 days
New York RangersSt. Louis Blues
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · STL 5−4
Nov 24, 2025at NYRNYR 3 − 2
Dec 15, 2024at STLSTL 3 − 2
Nov 25, 2024at NYRSTL 5 − 2
Mar 9, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 0
Jan 11, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 2
Apr 6, 2023at STLSTL 3 − 2 OT
Dec 5, 2022at NYRNYR 6 − 4
Mar 10, 2022at STLSTL 6 − 2
Mar 2, 2022at NYRNYR 5 − 3

NYR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 16, 2025vs VAN0 − 3L
Dec 15, 2025vs ANA1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 10, 2025at CHI0 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 6, 2025vs COL2 − 3L
Dec 4, 2025at OTT4 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025vs DAL3 − 2W
Nov 29, 2025vs TB1 − 4L
Nov 28, 2025at BOS6 − 2W

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 17, 2025vs WPG1 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025vs NSH2 − 5L
Dec 12, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025at NSH2 − 7L
Dec 9, 2025vs BOS2 − 5L
Dec 7, 2025at MTL4 − 3W
Dec 6, 2025at OTT2 − 1W
Dec 4, 2025at BOS2 − 5L
Dec 1, 2025vs ANA1 − 4L
Nov 29, 2025vs UTAH1 − 0W