bayesRatings

Rangers at Predators

NHL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 6:00 PM CT · Bridgestone Arena · Final NYR 1 – NSH 2
← NHL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR0011
NSH0112
Team box
NYR·NSH
17
shots
32
0 of 3
power play
0 of 2
63.6
faceoff %
36.4
17
hits
18
19
blocked shots
16
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Ryan O'ReillyNSH021
Filip ForsbergNSH105
Jonny BrodzinskiNYR105
Steven StamkosNSH102
Taylor RaddyshNYR011
Cole SmithNSH010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jonathan QuickNYR3130.968
Justus AnnunenNSH1716.941

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NSH +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NSH 2 · NYR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 51%, NSH 49% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.2 – 2.8 NSH
Expected total
6.0
RangersThe matchupPredators
−106Our fair odds+106
3.2Expected goals2.8
−0.00Power rating−0.23
2.6Goals / game2.9
2.7Allowed / game3.5
26.4Shots / game28.0
54.0Faceoff %52.8
26.3Hits / game19.3
18−19Season record14−20
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · NSH chance
Our model fair51.5%48.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers−10651%————
NSHNashville Predators+10649%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers−0.4our margin————
NSHNashville Predators+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 14%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 17%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 25%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 8%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 8%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 4%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 1%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byNSH wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRJonathan Quick G · last 5 starts: .928 save %, 2.20 GAAstarted
NSHJustus Annunen G · last 5 starts: .860 save %, 3.97 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·NSH
Dec 20, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Dec 20, 2025 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
NYR·NSH
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
2.6
goals / game
2.9
2.7
goals allowed / game
3.5
18−19
season record
14−20
5−13
home record
9−11
13−6
away record
5−9
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
26.4
shots / game
28.0
54.0
faceoff %
52.8
26.3
hits / game
19.3
14.7
blocked shots / game
11.6
4.6
takeaways / game
5.1
14.6
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

NYR · NSH · 68 days
New York RangersNashville Predators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NSH 4−5
Nov 10, 2025at NYRNYR 6 − 3
Mar 2, 2025at NYRNYR 4 − 0
Dec 17, 2024at NSHNSH 2 − 0
Dec 2, 2023at NSHNYR 4 − 3
Oct 19, 2023at NYRNSH 4 − 1
Mar 19, 2023at NYRNYR 7 − 0
Nov 12, 2022at NSHNSH 2 − 1
Dec 12, 2021at NYRNSH 1 − 0
Oct 21, 2021at NSHNYR 3 − 1

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI5 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025at STL2 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025vs VAN0 − 3L
Dec 15, 2025vs ANA1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 10, 2025at CHI0 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 6, 2025vs COL2 − 3L
Dec 4, 2025at OTT4 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025vs DAL3 − 2W

NSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 20, 2025vs TOR5 − 3W
Dec 17, 2025vs CAR1 − 4L
Dec 15, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at COL2 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025vs STL7 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Dec 6, 2025at CAR3 − 6L
Dec 4, 2025at FLA2 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025vs CGY5 − 1W
Nov 29, 2025vs WPG2 − 5L