bayesRatings

Capitals at Devils

NHL · Saturday, Dec 27 · 6:00 PM CT · Prudential Center · Final WSH 4 – NJ 3
← NHL / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
WSH11114
NJ01203
Team box
WSH·NJ
33
shots
38
0 of 1
power play
1 of 2
66.1
faceoff %
33.9
14
hits
17
21
blocked shots
10
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Aliaksei ProtasWSH125
Jesper BrattNJ206
Alex OvechkinWSH113
Jakob ChychrunWSH105
Cody GlassNJ103
Anthony BeauvillierWSH103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Logan ThompsonWSH3835.921
Jake AllenNJ3329.879

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NJ +3
WSH +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: NJ 1 · WSH 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 51%, NJ 49% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.0 – 2.6 NJ
Expected total
5.6
CapitalsThe matchupDevils
−105Our fair odds+105
3.0Expected goals2.6
+0.17Power rating−0.05
3.2Goals / game2.8
2.8Allowed / game3.0
29.3Shots / game29.2
48.1Faceoff %50.6
19.6Hits / game19.8
19−18Season record20−17
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NJ chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals−10551%————
NJNew Jersey Devils+10549%————
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Capitals−0.4our margin————
NJNew Jersey Devils+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 7%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 14%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 18%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 26%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 8%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 8%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 3%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 1%New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byNJ wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more35%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more24%
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 3.38 GAAstarted
NJJake Allen G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 2.46 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NJ
Dec 23, 2025 vs NYR
last game
Dec 23, 2025 at NYI
3 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
WSH·NJ
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.2
goals / game
2.8
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.0
19−18
season record
20−17
11−9
home record
10−8
8−9
away record
10−9
L3
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
4−6
29.3
shots / game
29.2
48.1
faceoff %
50.6
19.6
hits / game
19.8
14.7
blocked shots / game
15.4
4.4
takeaways / game
4.7
15.4
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

WSH · NJ · 71 days
Washington CapitalsNew Jersey Devils
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NJ 5−5
Nov 15, 2025at WSHNJ 3 − 2 SO
Nov 30, 2024at NJWSH 6 − 5
Nov 23, 2024at WSHNJ 3 − 2
Oct 19, 2024at NJWSH 6 − 5 OT
Oct 12, 2024at WSHNJ 5 − 3
Feb 20, 2024at WSHWSH 6 − 2
Jan 3, 2024at WSHNJ 6 − 3
Nov 10, 2023at NJWSH 4 − 2
Oct 25, 2023at NJWSH 6 − 4
Apr 13, 2023at WSHNJ 5 − 4 OT

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Dec 23, 2025vs NYR3 − 7L
Dec 21, 2025at DET2 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025vs DET2 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR4 − 0W
Dec 16, 2025at MIN0 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at WPG1 − 5L
Dec 11, 2025vs CAR2 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs CBJ2 − 0W
Dec 5, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025at SJ7 − 1W

NJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 23, 2025at NYI1 − 2L
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF1 − 3L
Dec 19, 2025at UTAH2 − 1W
Dec 17, 2025at VGK2 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025vs VAN1 − 2L
Dec 13, 2025vs ANA4 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025vs TB4 − 8L
Dec 9, 2025at OTT4 − 3W
Dec 6, 2025at BOS1 − 4L
Dec 5, 2025vs VGK0 − 3L