bayesRatings

Rangers at Capitals

NHL · Wednesday, Dec 31 · 11:30 AM CT · Capital One Arena · Final NYR 3 – WSH 6
← NHL / Dec 31, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR1113
WSH1236
Team box
NYR·WSH
25
shots
27
1 of 1
power play
1 of 3
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
21
hits
21
27
blocked shots
21
11
penalty minutes
7
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Tom WilsonWSH214
Justin SourdifWSH202
Adam FoxNYR111
Aliaksei ProtasWSH111
Artemi PanarinNYR023
Connor McMichaelWSH023
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jonathan QuickNYR2621.808
Charlie LindgrenWSH2522.880

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WSH 3 · NYR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 42%, WSH 58% · Updated Dec 31, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.1 – 2.7 NYR
Expected total
5.8
RangersThe matchupCapitals
+137Our fair odds−137
2.7Expected goals3.1
−0.03Power rating+0.13
2.6Goals / game3.2
2.7Allowed / game2.8
25.9Shots / game29.3
54.0Faceoff %48.7
25.8Hits / game19.4
19−22Season record20−19
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · WSH chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+13742%————
WSHWashington Capitals−13758%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers+0.4our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 4%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 19%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 24%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 13%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 7%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more33%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more23%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRJonathan Quick G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 2.20 GAAstarted
WSHCharlie Lindgren G · last 5 starts: .886 save %, 2.75 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·WSH
Dec 29, 2025 at CAR
last game
Dec 29, 2025 at FLA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
NYR·WSH
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
2.6
goals / game
3.2
2.7
goals allowed / game
2.8
19−22
season record
20−19
5−13
home record
11−9
14−9
away record
9−10
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
25.9
shots / game
29.3
54.0
faceoff %
48.7
25.8
hits / game
19.4
15.0
blocked shots / game
15.1
4.4
takeaways / game
4.4
14.6
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

NYR · WSH · 75 days
New York RangersWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Dec 23, 2025at WSHNYR 7 − 3
Oct 12, 2025at NYRWSH 1 − 0
Mar 5, 2025at NYRWSH 3 − 2 OT
Jan 4, 2025at WSHWSH 7 − 4
Oct 29, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 3
Apr 28, 2024at WSHNYR 4 − 2post
Apr 26, 2024at WSHNYR 3 − 1post
Apr 23, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 3post
Apr 21, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 1post
Jan 14, 2024at NYRNYR 2 − 1

NYR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 29, 2025at CAR2 − 3L
Dec 27, 2025at NYI0 − 2L
Dec 23, 2025at WSH7 − 3W
Dec 21, 2025at NSH1 − 2L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI5 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025at STL2 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025vs VAN0 − 3L
Dec 15, 2025vs ANA1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 10, 2025at CHI0 − 3L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 29, 2025at FLA3 − 5L
Dec 27, 2025at NJ4 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025vs NYR3 − 7L
Dec 21, 2025at DET2 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025vs DET2 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR4 − 0W
Dec 16, 2025at MIN0 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at WPG1 − 5L
Dec 11, 2025vs CAR2 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs CBJ2 − 0W