bayesRatings

Lightning at Kings

NHL · Thursday, Jan 1 · 6:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final TB 5 – LA 3
← NHL / Jan 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TB1135
LA2013
Team box
TB·LA
24
shots
20
1 of 2
power play
2 of 3
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
22
hits
20
12
blocked shots
21
11
penalty minutes
9
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nikita KucherovTB122
Corey PerryLA032
Brayden PointTB205
Anthony CirelliTB114
Kevin FialaLA113
Andrei KuzmenkoLA111
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jonas JohanssonTB2017.850
Darcy KuemperLA2319.826

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
TB +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 1 · TB 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 51%, LA 49% · Updated Jan 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 2.9 – 2.4 LA
Expected total
5.3
LightningThe matchupKings
−105Our fair odds+105
2.9Expected goals2.4
+0.26Power rating+0.05
3.3Goals / game2.6
2.7Allowed / game2.7
27.5Shots / game28.2
46.4Faceoff %49.5
19.7Hits / game17.7
23−16Season record16−22
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · LA chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning−10551%————
LALos Angeles Kings+10549%————
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.4our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.3
Over5.3our total————
Under5.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 7%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 14%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 18%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 27%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 3%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%
← TB wins byLA wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more35%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more23%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal45%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.3 expected
1 goals: 4%2 goals: 4%3 goals: 17%4 goals: 11%5 goals: 24%6 goals: 10%7 goals: 15%8 goals: 5%9 goals: 6%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 1%12 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.564%
Total over 5.541%
Total over 6.530%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBJonas Johansson G · last 5 starts: .886 save %, 3.10 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .944 save %, 1.62 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·LA
Dec 31, 2025 at ANA
last game
Dec 29, 2025 at COL
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
TB·LA
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
3.3
goals / game
2.6
2.7
goals allowed / game
2.7
23−16
season record
16−22
11−9
home record
5−12
12−7
away record
11−10
W5
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
27.5
shots / game
28.2
46.4
faceoff %
49.5
19.7
hits / game
17.7
13.2
blocked shots / game
13.6
4.2
takeaways / game
4.5
14.6
giveaways / game
16.6

Rating Trend

TB · LA · 76 days
Tampa Bay LightningLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LA 4−5
Dec 18, 2025at TBLA 2 − 1
Jan 30, 2025at TBTB 3 − 0
Jan 4, 2025at LALA 2 − 1
Mar 23, 2024at LALA 4 − 3 OT
Jan 9, 2024at TBTB 3 − 2 OT
Jan 28, 2023at TBTB 5 − 2
Oct 25, 2022at LALA 4 − 2
Jan 18, 2022at LATB 6 − 4
Dec 14, 2021at TBTB 3 − 2 OT

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Dec 31, 2025at ANA4 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 27, 2025at FLA4 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025vs STL4 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025vs CAR6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs LA1 − 2L
Dec 15, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at NYI2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at NJ8 − 4W
Dec 9, 2025at MTL6 − 1W

LA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 29, 2025at COL2 − 5L
Dec 27, 2025vs ANA6 − 1W
Dec 23, 2025vs SEA2 − 3L
Dec 22, 2025vs CBJ1 − 3L
Dec 18, 2025at TB2 − 1W
Dec 17, 2025at FLA2 − 3L
Dec 15, 2025at DAL1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025vs CGY1 − 2L
Dec 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025at UTAH4 − 2W