bayesRatings

Canadiens at Lightning

NHL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 4:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final MTL 4 – TB 5
← NHL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
MTL004004
TB031015
Team box
MTL·TB
35
shots
21
0 of 4
power play
0 of 1
62.7
faceoff %
37.3
26
hits
17
11
blocked shots
23
7
penalty minutes
13
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Juraj SlafkovskyMTL215
Nikita KucherovTB203
Noah DobsonMTL115
Ivan DemidovMTL113
Gage GoncalvesTB023
Oliver BjorkstrandTB021
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jacob FowlerMTL2117.810
Jonas JohanssonTB3531.886

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: TB 3 · MTL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 39%, TB 61% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 1.2
Expected score
TB 3.8 – 2.5 MTL
Expected total
6.3
CanadiensThe matchupLightning
+158Our fair odds−158
2.5Expected goals3.8
−0.07Power rating+0.22
3.3Goals / game3.3
3.4Allowed / game2.6
25.4Shots / game27.6
49.5Faceoff %46.8
21.2Hits / game19.8
20−17Season record21−16
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · TB chance
Our model fair38.8%61.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+15839%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−15861%————
SpreadTB by 1.2
MTLMontreal Canadiens+1.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.2 expected
Montreal Canadiens by 7 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 1%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 2%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 5%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 6%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 21%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 5%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: 1%
← MTL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more49%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more36%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more13%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJacob Fowler G · last 5 starts: .918 save %, 2.40 GAAstarted
TBJonas Johansson G · last 5 starts: .899 save %, 2.58 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·TB
Dec 23, 2025 at BOS
last game
Dec 27, 2025 at FLA
4 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
MTL·TB
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
3.3
goals / game
3.3
3.4
goals allowed / game
2.6
20−17
season record
21−16
10−10
home record
10−9
10−7
away record
11−7
W1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
5−5
25.4
shots / game
27.6
49.5
faceoff %
46.8
21.2
hits / game
19.8
16.5
blocked shots / game
12.9
4.2
takeaways / game
4.2
13.5
giveaways / game
14.5

Rating Trend

MTL · TB · 72 days
Montreal CanadiensTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 7−3
Dec 9, 2025at MTLTB 6 − 1
Feb 9, 2025at MTLTB 5 − 3
Jan 21, 2025at MTLMTL 3 − 2
Dec 29, 2024at TBMTL 5 − 2
Apr 4, 2024at MTLTB 7 − 4
Mar 2, 2024at TBTB 4 − 3 SO
Dec 31, 2023at TBTB 4 − 3
Nov 7, 2023at MTLTB 5 − 3
Mar 21, 2023at MTLMTL 3 − 2
Mar 18, 2023at TBTB 5 − 3

MTL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 23, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Dec 21, 2025at PIT3 − 4L
Dec 20, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W
Dec 18, 2025vs CHI4 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025vs PHI1 − 4L
Dec 14, 2025vs EDM4 − 1W
Dec 13, 2025at NYR4 − 5L
Dec 11, 2025at PIT4 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs TB1 − 6L
Dec 7, 2025vs STL3 − 4L

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Dec 27, 2025at FLA4 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025vs STL4 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025vs CAR6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs LA1 − 2L
Dec 15, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at NYI2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at NJ8 − 4W
Dec 9, 2025at MTL6 − 1W
Dec 8, 2025at TOR0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025vs NYI0 − 2L