bayesRatings

Hurricanes at Lightning

NHL · Saturday, Dec 20 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final CAR 4 – TB 6
← NHL / Dec 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CAR3014
TB0336
Team box
CAR·TB
22
shots
29
2 of 5
power play
0 of 3
42.3
faceoff %
57.7
23
hits
19
15
blocked shots
15
10
penalty minutes
14
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jake GuentzelTB205
Ryan McDonaghTB111
Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB020
Dominic JamesTB020
Bradly NadeauCAR104
Eric RobinsonCAR103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Pyotr KochetkovCAR2823.821
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2218.818

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
CAR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 2 · CAR 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 46%, TB 54% · Updated Dec 20, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 3.2 – 2.8 CAR
Expected total
5.9
HurricanesThe matchupLightning
+116Our fair odds−116
2.8Expected goals3.2
+0.23Power rating+0.22
3.4Goals / game3.1
2.8Allowed / game2.6
33.0Shots / game28.0
49.8Faceoff %46.4
18.5Hits / game19.7
22−12Season record18−16
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · TB chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Hurricanes+11646%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−11654%————
Spreadabout even
CARCarolina Hurricanes+0.4our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: <1%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 4%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 8%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 8%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 24%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 19%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 14%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 7%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 3%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%
← CAR wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more35%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more24%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CARPyotr Kochetkov G · last 5 starts: .903 save %, 2.14 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .940 save %, 1.63 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·TB
Dec 19, 2025 at FLA
last game
Dec 18, 2025 vs LA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
CAR·TB
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
3.4
goals / game
3.1
2.8
goals allowed / game
2.6
22−12
season record
18−16
11−6
home record
8−9
11−6
away record
10−7
L1
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
3−7
33.0
shots / game
28.0
49.8
faceoff %
46.4
18.5
hits / game
19.7
11.0
blocked shots / game
12.7
5.7
takeaways / game
4.2
16.4
giveaways / game
14.8

Rating Trend

CAR · TB · 67 days
Carolina HurricanesTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Mar 11, 2025at CARCAR 4 − 1
Jan 7, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
Oct 11, 2024at CARTB 4 − 1
Nov 24, 2023at CARTB 8 − 2
Nov 11, 2023at TBCAR 4 − 0
Oct 24, 2023at TBTB 3 − 0
Mar 28, 2023at CARTB 4 − 0
Mar 5, 2023at CARCAR 6 − 0
Nov 3, 2022at TBCAR 4 − 3 SO
Mar 29, 2022at TBTB 4 − 3 OT

CAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 19, 2025at FLA3 − 4L
Dec 17, 2025at NSH4 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025vs PHI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at PHI4 − 3W
Dec 11, 2025at WSH3 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs CBJ4 − 1W
Dec 7, 2025vs SJ1 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs NSH6 − 3W
Dec 4, 2025vs TOR1 − 5L
Nov 30, 2025vs CGY1 − 0W

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Dec 18, 2025vs LA1 − 2L
Dec 15, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at NYI2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at NJ8 − 4W
Dec 9, 2025at MTL6 − 1W
Dec 8, 2025at TOR0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025vs NYI0 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at NYI1 − 2L
Nov 29, 2025at NYR4 − 1W