bayesRatings

Lightning at Panthers

NHL · Saturday, Dec 27 · 6:00 PM CT · Amerant Bank Arena · Final TB 4 – FLA 2
← NHL / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TB2114
FLA1102
Team box
TB·FLA
25
shots
26
0 of 6
power play
1 of 10
48.0
faceoff %
52.0
32
hits
27
17
blocked shots
9
87
penalty minutes
49
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nikita KucherovTB203
Anthony CirelliTB021
Eetu LuostarinenFLA105
Brad MarchandFLA103
Jake GuentzelTB103
Pontus HolmbergTB101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2624.923
Sergei BobrovskyFLA2421.875

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
FLA +3
TB +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: FLA 1 · TB 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 46%, FLA 54% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
FLA 3.1 – 3.0 TB
Expected total
6.1
LightningThe matchupPanthers
+116Our fair odds−116
3.0Expected goals3.1
+0.22Power rating+0.20
3.2Goals / game3.2
2.6Allowed / game3.2
27.7Shots / game29.3
46.8Faceoff %47.3
19.4Hits / game25.7
20−16Season record20−16
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · FLA chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning+11646%————
FLAFlorida Panthers−11654%————
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Lightning+0.1our margin————
FLAFlorida Panthers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 5%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 9%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 19%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 24%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 10%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 11%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 6%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 2%Florida Panthers by 6 goals: <1%
← TB wins byFLA wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more29%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more19%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .906 save %, 2.45 GAAstarted
FLASergei Bobrovsky G · last 5 starts: .917 save %, 1.99 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·FLA
Dec 22, 2025 vs STL
last game
Dec 23, 2025 at CAR
4 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
TB·FLA
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
3.2
goals / game
3.2
2.6
goals allowed / game
3.2
20−16
season record
20−16
10−9
home record
12−9
10−7
away record
8−7
W2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
8−2
27.7
shots / game
29.3
46.8
faceoff %
47.3
19.4
hits / game
25.7
12.8
blocked shots / game
13.2
4.1
takeaways / game
4.1
14.6
giveaways / game
14.4

Rating Trend

TB · FLA · 71 days
Tampa Bay LightningFlorida Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · FLA 6−4
Dec 15, 2025at TBFLA 5 − 2
Nov 15, 2025at FLATB 3 − 1
Apr 30, 2025at TBFLA 6 − 3post
Apr 28, 2025at FLAFLA 4 − 2post
Apr 26, 2025at FLATB 5 − 1post
Apr 24, 2025at TBFLA 2 − 0post
Apr 22, 2025at TBFLA 6 − 2post
Apr 15, 2025at TBTB 5 − 1
Mar 3, 2025at FLAFLA 2 − 1
Dec 23, 2024at FLATB 4 − 0

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Dec 22, 2025vs STL4 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025vs CAR6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs LA1 − 2L
Dec 15, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at NYI2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at NJ8 − 4W
Dec 9, 2025at MTL6 − 1W
Dec 8, 2025at TOR0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025vs NYI0 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L

FLA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 23, 2025at CAR5 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025vs STL2 − 6L
Dec 19, 2025vs CAR4 − 3W
Dec 17, 2025vs LA3 − 2W
Dec 15, 2025at TB5 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at DAL4 − 0W
Dec 11, 2025at COL2 − 6L
Dec 10, 2025at UTAH4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs NYI4 − 1W
Dec 6, 2025vs CBJ7 − 6W