bayesRatings

Blues at Panthers

NHL · Saturday, Dec 20 · 5:00 PM CT · Amerant Bank Arena · Final STL 6 – FLA 2
← NHL / Dec 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
STL1236
FLA0202
Team box
STL·FLA
32
shots
29
1 of 3
power play
1 of 4
50.8
faceoff %
49.2
19
hits
26
14
blocked shots
7
8
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Robert ThomasSTL214
Jonatan BerggrenSTL122
Jake NeighboursSTL202
Pavel BuchnevichSTL022
Otto StenbergSTL021
Justin FaulkSTL104
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joel HoferSTL2927.931
Daniil TarasovFLA3126.839

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
FLA +4
STL +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: FLA 0 · STL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 38%, FLA 62% · Updated Dec 20, 2025

Expected margin
FLA by 1.0
Expected score
FLA 3.5 – 2.5 STL
Expected total
6.1
BluesThe matchupPanthers
+166Our fair odds−166
2.5Expected goals3.5
−0.12Power rating+0.22
2.4Goals / game3.2
3.5Allowed / game3.1
25.3Shots / game29.5
50.6Faceoff %47.4
23.1Hits / game25.5
13−23Season record19−15
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · FLA chance
Our model fair37.6%62.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Blues+16638%————
FLAFlorida Panthers−16662%————
SpreadFLA by 1.0
STLSt. Louis Blues+1our margin————
FLAFlorida Panthers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Florida Panthers by 1.0 expected
St. Louis Blues by 7 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 1%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 6%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 6%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 22%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 18%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 13%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 17%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 10%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 4%Florida Panthers by 6 goals: 1%Florida Panthers by 7 goals: <1%
← STL wins byFLA wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more45%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more33%
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more15%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.555%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
STLJoel Hofer G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 2.22 GAAstarted
FLADaniil Tarasov G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 3.23 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·FLA
Dec 18, 2025 vs NYR
last game
Dec 19, 2025 vs CAR
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
STL·FLA
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
2.4
goals / game
3.2
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.1
13−23
season record
19−15
7−13
home record
12−8
6−10
away record
7−7
L1
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
7−3
25.3
shots / game
29.5
50.6
faceoff %
47.4
23.1
hits / game
25.5
14.6
blocked shots / game
13.4
4.2
takeaways / game
4.1
13.9
giveaways / game
14.4

Rating Trend

STL · FLA · 67 days
St. Louis BluesFlorida Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · FLA 4−4
Feb 6, 2025at STLFLA 3 − 2
Dec 20, 2024at FLAFLA 2 − 1 OT
Jan 9, 2024at STLFLA 5 − 1
Dec 21, 2023at FLASTL 4 − 1
Feb 14, 2023at STLSTL 6 − 2
Nov 26, 2022at FLASTL 5 − 4 OT
Dec 7, 2021at STLSTL 4 − 3 OT
Dec 4, 2021at FLAFLA 4 − 3 SO

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 18, 2025vs NYR1 − 2L
Dec 17, 2025vs WPG1 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025vs NSH2 − 5L
Dec 12, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025at NSH2 − 7L
Dec 9, 2025vs BOS2 − 5L
Dec 7, 2025at MTL4 − 3W
Dec 6, 2025at OTT2 − 1W
Dec 4, 2025at BOS2 − 5L
Dec 1, 2025vs ANA1 − 4L

FLA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Dec 19, 2025vs CAR4 − 3W
Dec 17, 2025vs LA3 − 2W
Dec 15, 2025at TB5 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at DAL4 − 0W
Dec 11, 2025at COL2 − 6L
Dec 10, 2025at UTAH4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs NYI4 − 1W
Dec 6, 2025vs CBJ7 − 6W
Dec 4, 2025vs NSH1 − 2L
Dec 2, 2025vs TOR1 − 4L