bayesRatings

Blues at Lightning

NHL · Monday, Dec 22 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final STL 1 – TB 4
← NHL / Dec 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
STL0101
TB2114
Team box
STL·TB
24
shots
17
0 of 2
power play
2 of 4
50.9
faceoff %
49.1
27
hits
10
16
blocked shots
15
8
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Darren RaddyshTB121
Nikita KucherovTB021
Jake GuentzelTB021
Justin FaulkSTL104
Anthony CirelliTB102
Pontus HolmbergTB102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jordan BinningtonSTL1713.765
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2423.958

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
STL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 3 · STL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 38%, TB 62% · Updated Dec 22, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 1.2
Expected score
TB 3.6 – 2.4 STL
Expected total
6.1
BluesThe matchupLightning
+165Our fair odds−165
2.4Expected goals3.6
−0.12Power rating+0.22
2.5Goals / game3.2
3.4Allowed / game2.7
25.5Shots / game28.0
50.6Faceoff %46.7
23.0Hits / game19.7
14−23Season record19−16
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · TB chance
Our model fair37.8%62.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Blues+16538%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−16562%————
SpreadTB by 1.2
STLSt. Louis Blues+1.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.2 expected
St. Louis Blues by 7 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 1%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 5%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 5%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 21%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 5%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%
← STL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more49%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more36%
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more13%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.555%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
STLJordan Binnington G · last 5 starts: .861 save %, 4.04 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .911 save %, 2.45 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·TB
Dec 20, 2025 at FLA
last game
Dec 20, 2025 vs CAR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
STL·TB
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
2.5
goals / game
3.2
3.4
goals allowed / game
2.7
14−23
season record
19−16
7−13
home record
9−9
7−10
away record
10−7
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
25.5
shots / game
28.0
50.6
faceoff %
46.7
23.0
hits / game
19.7
14.5
blocked shots / game
12.7
4.2
takeaways / game
4.1
13.8
giveaways / game
14.7

Rating Trend

STL · TB · 69 days
St. Louis BluesTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TB 5−3
Dec 19, 2024at TBTB 3 − 1
Nov 5, 2024at STLSTL 3 − 2
Dec 19, 2023at TBTB 6 − 1
Nov 14, 2023at STLSTL 5 − 0
Jan 14, 2023at STLTB 4 − 2
Nov 25, 2022at TBTB 5 − 2
Dec 2, 2021at TBTB 4 − 2
Nov 30, 2021at STLSTL 4 − 3 SO

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 20, 2025at FLA6 − 2W
Dec 18, 2025vs NYR1 − 2L
Dec 17, 2025vs WPG1 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025vs NSH2 − 5L
Dec 12, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025at NSH2 − 7L
Dec 9, 2025vs BOS2 − 5L
Dec 7, 2025at MTL4 − 3W
Dec 6, 2025at OTT2 − 1W
Dec 4, 2025at BOS2 − 5L

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 20, 2025vs CAR6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs LA1 − 2L
Dec 15, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at NYI2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at NJ8 − 4W
Dec 9, 2025at MTL6 − 1W
Dec 8, 2025at TOR0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025vs NYI0 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at NYI1 − 2L