bayesRatings

Canadiens at Bruins

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final MTL 6 – BOS 2
← NHL / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MTL1146
BOS2002
Team box
MTL·BOS
29
shots
28
2 of 7
power play
1 of 5
47.4
faceoff %
52.6
23
hits
27
18
blocked shots
16
32
penalty minutes
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Lane HutsonMTL032
Noah DobsonMTL030
Nick SuzukiMTL112
Juraj SlafkovskyMTL112
Ivan DemidovMTL111
Cole CaufieldMTL105
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jacob FowlerMTL2826.929
Jeremy SwaymanBOS2923.793

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
MTL +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: BOS 1 · MTL 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 46%, BOS 54% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 3.4 – 3.1 MTL
Expected total
6.5
CanadiensThe matchupBruins
+117Our fair odds−117
3.1Expected goals3.4
−0.07Power rating−0.08
3.2Goals / game3.2
3.4Allowed / game3.2
25.3Shots / game27.2
49.5Faceoff %51.8
21.2Hits / game24.7
19−17Season record20−17
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+11746%————
BOSBoston Bruins−11754%————
Spreadabout even
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.3our margin————
BOSBoston Bruins−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 2%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 5%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 10%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 9%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 21%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 20%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 13%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 7%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 3%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: 1%
← MTL wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more34%
Boston Bruins wins by 3 or more23%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJacob Fowler G · last 4 starts: .915 save %, 2.49 GAAstarted
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .865 save %, 3.27 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·BOS
Dec 21, 2025 at PIT
last game
Dec 21, 2025 vs OTT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
MTL·BOS
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
3.2
goals / game
3.2
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.2
19−17
season record
20−17
10−10
home record
12−8
9−7
away record
8−9
L1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
5−5
25.3
shots / game
27.2
49.5
faceoff %
51.8
21.2
hits / game
24.7
16.4
blocked shots / game
16.1
4.2
takeaways / game
4.7
13.6
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

MTL · BOS · 70 days
Montreal CanadiensBoston Bruins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 8−2
Nov 15, 2025at MTLBOS 3 − 2
Apr 3, 2025at MTLMTL 4 − 1
Dec 1, 2024at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Oct 10, 2024at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Mar 14, 2024at MTLBOS 2 − 1 OT
Jan 20, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 4
Nov 18, 2023at BOSBOS 5 − 2
Nov 11, 2023at MTLMTL 3 − 2 OT
Apr 13, 2023at MTLBOS 5 − 4
Mar 23, 2023at BOSBOS 4 − 2

MTL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 21, 2025at PIT3 − 4L
Dec 20, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W
Dec 18, 2025vs CHI4 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025vs PHI1 − 4L
Dec 14, 2025vs EDM4 − 1W
Dec 13, 2025at NYR4 − 5L
Dec 11, 2025at PIT4 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs TB1 − 6L
Dec 7, 2025vs STL3 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025at TOR2 − 1W

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Dec 21, 2025vs OTT2 − 6L
Dec 20, 2025vs VAN4 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025vs EDM1 − 3L
Dec 16, 2025vs UTAH4 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025at MIN2 − 6L
Dec 11, 2025at WPG6 − 3W
Dec 9, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W
Dec 4, 2025vs STL5 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025at DET4 − 5L