bayesRatings

Kings at Avalanche

NHL · Monday, Dec 29 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final LA 2 – COL 5
← NHL / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
LA0112
COL1225
Team box
LA·COL
25
shots
26
1 of 3
power play
0 of 4
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
29
hits
18
11
blocked shots
9
8
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nathan MacKinnonCOL112
Brock NelsonCOL111
Cale MakarCOL104
Martin NecasCOL104
Jack DruryCOL102
Corey PerryLA101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Anton ForsbergLA2521.840
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL2523.920

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
LA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 3 · LA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 30%, COL 70% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 1.2
Expected score
COL 3.6 – 2.4 LA
Expected total
6.1
KingsThe matchupAvalanche
+233Our fair odds−233
2.4Expected goals3.6
+0.06Power rating+0.75
2.6Goals / game4.0
2.6Allowed / game2.3
28.2Shots / game34.7
49.4Faceoff %50.5
17.4Hits / game17.7
16−21Season record28−9
4−6Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · COL chance
Our model fair30.0%70.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+23330%————
COLColorado Avalanche−23370%————
SpreadCOL by 1.2
LALos Angeles Kings+1.2our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.2 expected
Los Angeles Kings by 7 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 5%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 6%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 24%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 18%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 10%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 4%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: <1%
← LA wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more47%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more14%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.555%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .920 save %, 2.38 GAAstarted
COLMackenzie Blackwood G · last 5 starts: .931 save %, 1.98 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·COL
Dec 27, 2025 vs ANA
last game
Dec 27, 2025 at VGK
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
LA·COL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.75
2.6
goals / game
4.0
2.6
goals allowed / game
2.3
16−21
season record
28−9
5−12
home record
15−2
11−9
away record
13−7
W1
streak
W7
4−6
last 10
9−1
28.2
shots / game
34.7
49.4
faceoff %
50.5
17.4
hits / game
17.7
13.6
blocked shots / game
13.9
4.5
takeaways / game
4.7
16.6
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

LA · COL · 73 days
Los Angeles KingsColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 6−4
Oct 7, 2025at LACOL 4 − 1
Apr 12, 2025at LALA 5 − 4
Mar 27, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 0
Nov 13, 2024at COLCOL 4 − 2
Jan 26, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 1
Dec 3, 2023at LALA 4 − 1
Oct 11, 2023at LACOL 5 − 2
Apr 8, 2023at LACOL 4 − 3
Mar 9, 2023at COLLA 5 − 2
Dec 29, 2022at COLLA 5 − 4 SO

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 27, 2025vs ANA6 − 1W
Dec 23, 2025vs SEA2 − 3L
Dec 22, 2025vs CBJ1 − 3L
Dec 18, 2025at TB2 − 1W
Dec 17, 2025at FLA2 − 3L
Dec 15, 2025at DAL1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025vs CGY1 − 2L
Dec 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025at UTAH4 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025vs CHI6 − 0W

COL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Dec 27, 2025at VGK6 − 5W
Dec 23, 2025vs UTAH1 − 0W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN5 − 1W
Dec 19, 2025vs WPG3 − 2W
Dec 16, 2025at SEA5 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025vs NSH4 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025vs FLA6 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at NSH3 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at PHI3 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025at NYR3 − 2W