bayesRatings

Blues at Blackhawks

NHL · Wednesday, Jan 7 · 8:30 PM CT · United Center · Final STL 3 – CHI 7
← NHL / Jan 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
STL1113
CHI1427
Team box
STL·CHI
30
shots
35
0 of 5
power play
3 of 4
39.1
faceoff %
60.9
25
hits
19
7
blocked shots
16
8
penalty minutes
20
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Connor MurphyCHI112
Louis CrevierCHI112
Landon SlaggertCHI112
Oliver MooreCHI111
Matt GrzelcykCHI021
Andre BurakovskyCHI104
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jordan BinningtonSTL3528.800
Spencer KnightCHI3027.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +5
STL +5
P1P2P3
largest lead: CHI 5 · STL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 52%, CHI 48% · Updated Jan 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 3.1 – 2.9 CHI
Expected total
5.9
BluesThe matchupBlackhawks
−108Our fair odds+108
3.1Expected goals2.9
−0.10Power rating−0.33
2.5Goals / game2.8
3.4Allowed / game3.2
24.6Shots / game25.1
50.6Faceoff %46.4
23.0Hits / game17.8
17−26Season record17−25
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · CHI chance
Our model fair51.9%48.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Blues−10852%————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+10848%————
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Blues−0.2our margin————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 6%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 12%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 10%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 20%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 23%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 9%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 10%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 5%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%
← STL wins byCHI wins by →
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more32%
St. Louis Blues wins by 3 or more21%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
STLJordan Binnington G · last 5 starts: .873 save %, 3.83 GAAstarted
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .886 save %, 2.78 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·CHI
Jan 3 vs MTL
last game
Jan 4 vs VGK
3 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
STL·CHI
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.33
2.5
goals / game
2.8
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.2
17−26
season record
17−25
10−14
home record
9−12
7−12
away record
8−13
W2
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
4−6
24.6
shots / game
25.1
50.6
faceoff %
46.4
23.0
hits / game
17.8
14.9
blocked shots / game
12.3
4.2
takeaways / game
5.2
14.3
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

STL · CHI · 82 days
St. Louis BluesChicago Blackhawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 2−8
Dec 12, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2
Oct 15, 2025at STLCHI 8 − 3
Mar 22, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 1
Feb 8, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5 SO
Dec 31, 2024at CHISTL 6 − 2
Apr 10, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 2
Dec 23, 2023at STLSTL 7 − 5
Dec 9, 2023at CHICHI 3 − 1
Nov 26, 2023at CHISTL 4 − 2
Mar 30, 2023at CHISTL 5 − 3

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 3vs MTL2 − 0W
Jan 2vs VGK4 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025at COL1 − 6L
Dec 29, 2025vs BUF2 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs NSH3 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025at TB1 − 4L
Dec 20, 2025at FLA6 − 2W
Dec 18, 2025vs NYR1 − 2L
Dec 17, 2025vs WPG1 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025vs NSH2 − 5L

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Jan 4vs VGK3 − 2W
Jan 3at WSH3 − 2W
Jan 1vs DAL4 − 3W
Dec 30, 2025vs NYI2 − 3L
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 7L
Dec 27, 2025at DAL4 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025vs PHI1 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025at OTT4 − 6L
Dec 18, 2025at MTL1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025at TOR2 − 3L