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Canadiens at Blues

NHL · Saturday, Jan 3 · 3:00 PM CT · Enterprise Center · Final MTL 0 – STL 2
← NHL / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MTL0000
STL1102
Team box
MTL·STL
26
shots
19
0 of 4
power play
0 of 2
56.1
faceoff %
43.9
15
hits
16
10
blocked shots
17
4
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Robert ThomasSTL102
Jonatan BerggrenSTL101
Alexey ToropchenkoSTL012
Otto StenbergSTL011
Cam FowlerSTL010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jacob FowlerMTL1917.895
Jordan BinningtonSTL26261.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: STL 2 · MTL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 48%, STL 52% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 3.1 – 3.1 MTL
Expected total
6.2
CanadiensThe matchupBlues
+110Our fair odds−110
3.1Expected goals3.1
−0.05Power rating−0.12
3.4Goals / game2.5
3.4Allowed / game3.5
25.7Shots / game24.7
49.8Faceoff %50.8
21.3Hits / game23.1
22−18Season record16−26
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · STL chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+11048%————
STLSt. Louis Blues−11052%————
Spreadabout even
MTLMontreal CanadiensPKour margin————
STLSt. Louis BluesPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 2%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 6%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 11%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 10%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 18%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 24%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 9%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 11%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 5%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%
← MTL wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more28%
St. Louis Blues wins by 3 or more18%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJacob Fowler G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 2.76 GAAstarted
STLJordan Binnington G · last 5 starts: .852 save %, 4.47 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·STL
Jan 1 at CAR
last game
Jan 2 vs VGK
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
MTL·STL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
3.4
goals / game
2.5
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.5
22−18
season record
16−26
10−10
home record
9−14
12−8
away record
7−12
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
25.7
shots / game
24.7
49.8
faceoff %
50.8
21.3
hits / game
23.1
16.3
blocked shots / game
14.9
4.3
takeaways / game
4.2
13.6
giveaways / game
14.2

Rating Trend

MTL · STL · 78 days
Montreal CanadiensSt. Louis Blues
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · STL 5−4
Dec 7, 2025at MTLSTL 4 − 3
Mar 25, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 1
Oct 26, 2024at MTLMTL 5 − 2
Feb 11, 2024at MTLSTL 7 − 2
Nov 4, 2023at STLSTL 6 − 3
Jan 7, 2023at MTLMTL 5 − 4
Oct 29, 2022at STLMTL 7 − 4
Feb 17, 2022at MTLMTL 3 − 2 OT
Dec 11, 2021at STLSTL 4 − 1

MTL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 1at CAR7 − 5W
Dec 30, 2025at FLA3 − 2W
Dec 28, 2025at TB4 − 5L
Dec 23, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Dec 21, 2025at PIT3 − 4L
Dec 20, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W
Dec 18, 2025vs CHI4 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025vs PHI1 − 4L
Dec 14, 2025vs EDM4 − 1W
Dec 13, 2025at NYR4 − 5L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 2vs VGK4 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025at COL1 − 6L
Dec 29, 2025vs BUF2 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs NSH3 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025at TB1 − 4L
Dec 20, 2025at FLA6 − 2W
Dec 18, 2025vs NYR1 − 2L
Dec 17, 2025vs WPG1 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025vs NSH2 − 5L
Dec 12, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W