bayesRatings

Blues at Avalanche

NHL · Wednesday, Dec 31 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final STL 1 – COL 6
← NHL / Dec 31, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
STL0011
COL4116
Team box
STL·COL
13
shots
43
0 of 3
power play
1 of 3
46.2
faceoff %
53.8
22
hits
6
24
blocked shots
7
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nathan MacKinnonCOL227
Valeri NichushkinCOL306
Brock NelsonCOL111
Josh MansonCOL023
Dalibor DvorskySTL102
Martin NecasCOL015
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jordan BinningtonSTL4337.860
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL1312.923

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +5
STL +5
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 5 · STL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 26%, COL 74% · Updated Dec 31, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 1.8
Expected score
COL 4.2 – 2.4 STL
Expected total
6.5
BluesThe matchupAvalanche
+287Our fair odds−287
2.4Expected goals4.2
−0.12Power rating+0.80
2.5Goals / game4.0
3.4Allowed / game2.3
25.1Shots / game34.4
50.7Faceoff %50.5
23.3Hits / game17.7
15−25Season record29−9
4−6Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · COL chance
Our model fair25.8%74.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Blues+28726%————
COLColorado Avalanche−28774%————
SpreadCOL by 1.8
STLSt. Louis Blues+1.8our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.8 expected
St. Louis Blues by 8 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 7 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 1%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 3%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 4%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 17%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 21%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 14%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 7%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: <1%
← STL wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more58%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more45%
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more9%
Decided by one goal33%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.549%
Total over 7.531%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
STLJordan Binnington G · last 5 starts: .841 save %, 4.25 GAAstarted
COLMackenzie Blackwood G · last 5 starts: .930 save %, 2.00 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·COL
Dec 29, 2025 vs BUF
last game
Dec 29, 2025 vs LA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
STL·COL
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.80
2.5
goals / game
4.0
3.4
goals allowed / game
2.3
15−25
season record
29−9
8−14
home record
16−2
7−11
away record
13−7
L1
streak
W8
4−6
last 10
9−1
25.1
shots / game
34.4
50.7
faceoff %
50.5
23.3
hits / game
17.7
14.8
blocked shots / game
13.8
4.2
takeaways / game
4.7
14.0
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

STL · COL · 75 days
St. Louis BluesColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 6−4
Apr 5, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 4
Mar 29, 2025at COLSTL 2 − 1
Feb 23, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 1
Jan 31, 2025at COLCOL 5 − 0
Mar 19, 2024at STLCOL 4 − 3
Dec 29, 2023at STLCOL 2 − 1
Nov 11, 2023at COLSTL 8 − 2
Nov 1, 2023at COLCOL 4 − 1
Feb 18, 2023at STLCOL 4 − 1
Jan 28, 2023at COLCOL 4 − 2

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 29, 2025vs BUF2 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs NSH3 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025at TB1 − 4L
Dec 20, 2025at FLA6 − 2W
Dec 18, 2025vs NYR1 − 2L
Dec 17, 2025vs WPG1 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025vs NSH2 − 5L
Dec 12, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025at NSH2 − 7L
Dec 9, 2025vs BOS2 − 5L

COL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Dec 29, 2025vs LA5 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025at VGK6 − 5W
Dec 23, 2025vs UTAH1 − 0W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN5 − 1W
Dec 19, 2025vs WPG3 − 2W
Dec 16, 2025at SEA5 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025vs NSH4 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025vs FLA6 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at NSH3 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at PHI3 − 2W