bayesRatings

Avalanche at Lightning

NHL · Tuesday, Jan 6 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final COL 2 – TB 4
← NHL / Jan 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
COL0202
TB1124
Team box
COL·TB
33
shots
28
0 of 2
power play
1 of 2
69.1
faceoff %
30.9
20
hits
21
19
blocked shots
16
6
penalty minutes
18
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Brandon HagelTB112
Darren RaddyshTB024
Nikita KucherovTB020
Brock NelsonCOL104
Jake GuentzelTB103
Parker KellyCOL102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Scott WedgewoodCOL2724.889
Andrei VasilevskiyTB3331.939

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
COL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 2 · COL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 58%, TB 42% · Updated Jan 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
COL 3.2 – 3.1 TB
Expected total
6.3
AvalancheThe matchupLightning
−140Our fair odds+140
3.2Expected goals3.1
+0.79Power rating+0.30
4.0Goals / game3.5
2.3Allowed / game2.7
34.5Shots / game27.4
51.0Faceoff %46.4
17.4Hits / game19.4
31−10Season record25−16
9−1Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · TB chance
Our model fair58.4%41.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−14058%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning+14042%————
Spreadabout even
COLColorado Avalanche−0.1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: <1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 6%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 11%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 10%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 26%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 16%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 10%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 6%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: <1%
← COL wins byTB wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more29%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more19%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .909 save %, 2.39 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .893 save %, 2.58 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·TB
Jan 4 at FLA
last game
Jan 3 at SJ
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
COL·TB
+0.79
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
4.0
goals / game
3.5
2.3
goals allowed / game
2.7
31−10
season record
25−16
17−2
home record
11−9
14−8
away record
14−7
L1
streak
W7
9−1
last 10
7−3
34.5
shots / game
27.4
51.0
faceoff %
46.4
17.4
hits / game
19.4
13.4
blocked shots / game
13.0
4.7
takeaways / game
4.1
15.6
giveaways / game
14.6

Rating Trend

COL · TB · 81 days
Colorado AvalancheTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Nov 4, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 2
Nov 25, 2024at TBTB 8 − 2
Oct 30, 2024at COLTB 5 − 2
Feb 15, 2024at TBTB 6 − 3
Nov 27, 2023at COLCOL 4 − 1
Feb 14, 2023at COLTB 4 − 3 SO
Feb 9, 2023at TBTB 5 − 0
Jun 26, 2022at TBCOL 2 − 1post
Jun 24, 2022at COLTB 3 − 2post
Jun 22, 2022at TBCOL 3 − 2 OTpost

COL · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Jan 4at FLA1 − 2L
Jan 3at CAR5 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025vs STL6 − 1W
Dec 29, 2025vs LA5 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025at VGK6 − 5W
Dec 23, 2025vs UTAH1 − 0W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN5 − 1W
Dec 19, 2025vs WPG3 − 2W
Dec 16, 2025at SEA5 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025vs NSH4 − 2W

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W7
Jan 3at SJ7 − 3W
Jan 1at LA5 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025at ANA4 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 27, 2025at FLA4 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025vs STL4 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025vs CAR6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs LA1 − 2L
Dec 15, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at NYI2 − 3L