bayesRatings

Avalanche at Hurricanes

NHL · Saturday, Jan 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Lenovo Center · Final COL 5 – CAR 3
← NHL / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
COL0145
CAR1203
Team box
COL·CAR
34
shots
28
2 of 5
power play
1 of 3
62.9
faceoff %
37.1
19
hits
18
10
blocked shots
15
6
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nathan MacKinnonCOL132
Brock NelsonCOL207
Sebastian AhoCAR117
Cale MakarCOL022
Martin NecasCOL020
Andrei SvechnikovCAR104
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Scott WedgewoodCOL2825.893
Frederik AndersenCAR3430.882

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +3
COL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CAR 2 · COL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 60%, CAR 40% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
COL 3.3 – 2.9 CAR
Expected total
6.2
AvalancheThe matchupHurricanes
−151Our fair odds+151
3.3Expected goals2.9
+0.80Power rating+0.21
4.1Goals / game3.4
2.3Allowed / game3.0
34.7Shots / game32.2
50.6Faceoff %49.9
17.4Hits / game19.3
30−9Season record24−16
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · CAR chance
Our model fair60.2%39.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−15160%————
CARCarolina Hurricanes+15140%————
Spreadabout even
COLColorado Avalanche−0.4our margin————
CARCarolina Hurricanes+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: <1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 7%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 11%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 27%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 15%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 9%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 10%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 5%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 2%Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: <1%
← COL wins byCAR wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more33%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more23%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .914 save %, 2.35 GAAstarted
CARFrederik Andersen G · last 5 starts: .818 save %, 4.10 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·CAR
Dec 31, 2025 vs STL
last game
Jan 1 vs MTL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
COL·CAR
+0.80
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
4.1
goals / game
3.4
2.3
goals allowed / game
3.0
30−9
season record
24−16
17−2
home record
13−8
13−7
away record
11−8
W9
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
5−5
34.7
shots / game
32.2
50.6
faceoff %
49.9
17.4
hits / game
19.3
13.6
blocked shots / game
11.1
4.7
takeaways / game
5.8
15.6
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

COL · CAR · 78 days
Colorado AvalancheCarolina Hurricanes
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CAR 4−5
Oct 23, 2025at COLCAR 5 − 4 SO
Dec 5, 2024at CARCAR 5 − 3
Nov 9, 2024at COLCOL 6 − 4
Feb 8, 2024at CARCAR 5 − 2
Oct 21, 2023at COLCOL 6 − 4
Nov 17, 2022at CARCOL 3 − 2 OT
Nov 12, 2022at COLCOL 4 − 1
Apr 16, 2022at COLCOL 7 − 4
Mar 10, 2022at CARCAR 2 − 0

COL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Dec 31, 2025vs STL6 − 1W
Dec 29, 2025vs LA5 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025at VGK6 − 5W
Dec 23, 2025vs UTAH1 − 0W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN5 − 1W
Dec 19, 2025vs WPG3 − 2W
Dec 16, 2025at SEA5 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025vs NSH4 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025vs FLA6 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at NSH3 − 4L

CAR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jan 1vs MTL5 − 7L
Dec 30, 2025at PIT1 − 5L
Dec 29, 2025vs NYR3 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025vs DET5 − 2W
Dec 23, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Dec 20, 2025at TB4 − 6L
Dec 19, 2025at FLA3 − 4L
Dec 17, 2025at NSH4 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025vs PHI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at PHI4 − 3W