bayesRatings

Red Wings at Hurricanes

NHL · Saturday, Dec 27 · 6:00 PM CT · Lenovo Center · Final DET 2 – CAR 5
← NHL / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DET1012
CAR0325
Team box
DET·CAR
20
shots
38
1 of 2
power play
0 of 1
56.9
faceoff %
43.1
22
hits
22
17
blocked shots
6
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Shayne GostisbehereCAR124
Andrei SvechnikovCAR123
Eric RobinsonCAR105
Jackson BlakeCAR104
Michael RasmussenDET102
Jordan MartinookCAR101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
John GibsonDET3733.892
Brandon BussiCAR2018.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +3
DET +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CAR 3 · DET 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 40%, CAR 60% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
CAR by 0.8
Expected score
CAR 3.5 – 2.7 DET
Expected total
6.2
Red WingsThe matchupHurricanes
+150Our fair odds−150
2.7Expected goals3.5
−0.03Power rating+0.21
3.2Goals / game3.4
3.2Allowed / game2.9
29.5Shots / game32.3
51.7Faceoff %49.8
17.8Hits / game19.1
22−16Season record22−14
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CAR chance
Our model fair40.0%60.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+15040%————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−15060%————
SpreadCAR by 0.8
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.8our margin————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Hurricanes by 0.8 expected
Detroit Red Wings by 7 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 3%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 7%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 7%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 22%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 19%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 12%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 16%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 9%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 4%Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 7 goals: <1%
← DET wins byCAR wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more42%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more30%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .922 save %, 2.00 GAAstarted
CARBrandon Bussi G · last 5 starts: .920 save %, 2.10 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CAR
Dec 23, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Dec 23, 2025 vs FLA
3 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
DET·CAR
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
3.2
goals / game
3.4
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.9
22−16
season record
22−14
12−8
home record
11−7
10−8
away record
11−7
W3
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
6−4
29.5
shots / game
32.3
51.7
faceoff %
49.8
17.8
hits / game
19.1
16.7
blocked shots / game
11.2
4.3
takeaways / game
5.7
16.2
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

DET · CAR · 71 days
Detroit Red WingsCarolina Hurricanes
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CAR 7−3
Apr 4, 2025at DETDET 5 − 3
Mar 14, 2025at CARCAR 4 − 2
Mar 4, 2025at DETCAR 2 − 1
Mar 28, 2024at CARCAR 4 − 0
Jan 19, 2024at CARCAR 4 − 2
Dec 14, 2023at DETCAR 2 − 1
Apr 11, 2023at CARCAR 4 − 1
Mar 30, 2023at DETDET 3 − 2
Dec 13, 2022at DETCAR 1 − 0
Apr 14, 2022at CARDET 3 − 0

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Dec 23, 2025vs DAL4 − 3W
Dec 21, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH5 − 2W
Dec 17, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs NYI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at CHI4 − 0W
Dec 11, 2025at EDM1 − 4L
Dec 10, 2025at CGY4 − 3W
Dec 8, 2025at VAN4 − 0W
Dec 6, 2025at SEA4 − 3W

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Dec 23, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Dec 20, 2025at TB4 − 6L
Dec 19, 2025at FLA3 − 4L
Dec 17, 2025at NSH4 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025vs PHI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at PHI4 − 3W
Dec 11, 2025at WSH3 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs CBJ4 − 1W
Dec 7, 2025vs SJ1 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs NSH6 − 3W