bayesRatings

Sharks at Lightning

NHL · Tuesday, Jan 20 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final SJ 1 – TB 4
← NHL / Jan 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SJ1001
TB1214
Team box
SJ·TB
23
shots
20
0 of 1
power play
0 of 1
56.0
faceoff %
44.0
29
hits
13
18
blocked shots
14
2
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Brandon HagelTB215
Nikita KucherovTB030
Jake GuentzelTB111
Anthony CirelliTB111
Tyler ToffoliSJ101
Dominic JamesTB014
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Yaroslav AskarovSJ1916.842
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2322.957

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
SJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 3 · SJ 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SJ 29%, TB 71% · Updated Jan 20

Expected margin
TB by 1.9
Expected score
TB 4.5 – 2.6 SJ
Expected total
7.1
SharksThe matchupLightning
+245Our fair odds−245
2.6Expected goals4.5
−0.32Power rating+0.43
3.2Goals / game3.5
3.5Allowed / game2.6
25.3Shots / game27.5
47.8Faceoff %46.1
20.6Hits / game19.0
25−23Season record30−17
7−3Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SJ chance · TB chance
Our model fair29.0%71.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SJSan Jose Sharks+24529%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−24571%————
SpreadTB by 1.9
SJSan Jose Sharks+1.9our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.1
Over7.1our total————
Under7.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.9 expected
San Jose Sharks by 8 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 7 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 1%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 3%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 4%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 16%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 15%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 21%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 15%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 8%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 8 goals: 1%
← SJ wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more61%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more48%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more9%
Decided by one goal30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.1 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 6%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 16%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 6%11 goals: 6%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: 1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.558%
Total over 7.540%
Total over 8.529%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .870 save %, 3.75 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .934 save %, 1.55 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SJ·TB
Jan 19 at FLA
last game
Jan 18 at DAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
SJ·TB
−0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
3.2
goals / game
3.5
3.5
goals allowed / game
2.6
25−23
season record
30−17
13−12
home record
12−9
12−11
away record
18−8
W1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
9−1
25.3
shots / game
27.5
47.8
faceoff %
46.1
20.6
hits / game
19.0
15.6
blocked shots / game
12.7
4.5
takeaways / game
4.1
15.7
giveaways / game
14.6

Rating Trend

SJ · TB · 95 days
San Jose SharksTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TB 7−2
Jan 3at SJTB 7 − 3
Jan 2, 2025at SJSJ 2 − 1
Dec 5, 2024at TBTB 8 − 1
Mar 21, 2024at SJTB 4 − 1
Oct 26, 2023at TBTB 6 − 0
Feb 7, 2023at TBSJ 4 − 3 OT
Oct 29, 2022at SJTB 4 − 3
Feb 1, 2022at TBTB 3 − 2 OT
Jan 22, 2022at SJTB 7 − 1

SJ · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 19at FLA4 − 1W
Jan 16at DET2 − 4L
Jan 15at WSH3 − 2W
Jan 11vs VGK2 − 7L
Jan 10vs DAL5 − 4W
Jan 7at LA4 − 3W
Jan 6vs CBJ5 − 2W
Jan 3vs TB3 − 7L
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN4 − 3W
Dec 29, 2025at ANA5 − 4W

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Jan 18at DAL4 − 1W
Jan 16at STL2 − 3L
Jan 13at PIT2 − 1W
Jan 12at PHI5 − 1W
Jan 10at PHI7 − 2W
Jan 6vs COL4 − 2W
Jan 3at SJ7 − 3W
Jan 1at LA5 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025at ANA4 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W