bayesRatings

Sharks at Kings

NHL · Wednesday, Jan 7 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final SJ 4 – LA 3
← NHL / Jan 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
SJ01214
LA01203
Team box
SJ·LA
28
shots
26
2 of 4
power play
0 of 3
55.4
faceoff %
44.6
21
hits
12
17
blocked shots
14
6
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Macklin CelebriniSJ127
Kevin FialaLA114
Alex TurcotteLA114
Joel EdmundsonLA022
Tyler ToffoliSJ107
William EklundSJ105
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Yaroslav AskarovSJ2623.885
Darcy KuemperLA2824.857

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
SJ +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: LA 1 · SJ 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SJ 36%, LA 64% · Updated Jan 7

Expected margin
LA by 1.1
Expected score
LA 3.5 – 2.4 SJ
Expected total
5.9
SharksThe matchupKings
+182Our fair odds−182
2.4Expected goals3.5
−0.41Power rating+0.04
3.1Goals / game2.7
3.5Allowed / game2.8
25.3Shots / game28.3
47.3Faceoff %49.5
20.6Hits / game17.5
21−21Season record18−23
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SJ chance · LA chance
Our model fair35.5%64.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SJSan Jose Sharks+18236%————
LALos Angeles Kings−18264%————
SpreadLA by 1.1
SJSan Jose Sharks+1.1our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Kings by 1.1 expected
San Jose Sharks by 7 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 1%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 2%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 5%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 6%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 21%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 19%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 13%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 18%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 10%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 4%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 7 goals: <1%
← SJ wins byLA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more47%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more34%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more14%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .895 save %, 3.16 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .903 save %, 2.75 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SJ·LA
Jan 6 vs CBJ
last game
Jan 5 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
SJ·LA
−0.41
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
3.1
goals / game
2.7
3.5
goals allowed / game
2.8
21−21
season record
18−23
12−11
home record
7−13
9−10
away record
11−10
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
4−6
25.3
shots / game
28.3
47.3
faceoff %
49.5
20.6
hits / game
17.5
15.8
blocked shots / game
13.9
4.5
takeaways / game
4.5
15.4
giveaways / game
16.8

Rating Trend

SJ · LA · 82 days
San Jose SharksLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LA 6−4
Nov 20, 2025at SJSJ 4 − 3 SO
Oct 28, 2025at SJLA 4 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at LALA 8 − 1
Nov 25, 2024at SJSJ 7 − 2
Oct 29, 2024at SJSJ 4 − 2
Oct 24, 2024at LALA 3 − 2
Apr 4, 2024at SJLA 2 − 1
Jan 22, 2024at LASJ 4 − 3 SO
Dec 27, 2023at LALA 5 − 1
Dec 19, 2023at SJLA 4 − 1

SJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 6vs CBJ5 − 2W
Jan 3vs TB3 − 7L
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN4 − 3W
Dec 29, 2025at ANA5 − 4W
Dec 27, 2025at VAN6 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025at VGK2 − 7L
Dec 20, 2025vs SEA2 − 4L
Dec 18, 2025vs DAL3 − 5L
Dec 16, 2025vs CGY6 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025at PIT6 − 5W

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jan 5vs MIN4 − 2W
Jan 3vs MIN5 − 4W
Jan 1vs TB3 − 5L
Dec 29, 2025at COL2 − 5L
Dec 27, 2025vs ANA6 − 1W
Dec 23, 2025vs SEA2 − 3L
Dec 22, 2025vs CBJ1 − 3L
Dec 18, 2025at TB2 − 1W
Dec 17, 2025at FLA2 − 3L
Dec 15, 2025at DAL1 − 4L