bayesRatings

Lightning at Penguins

NHL · Tuesday, Jan 13 · 6:00 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · Final TB 2 – PIT 1
← NHL / Jan 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
TB001012
PIT001001
Team box
TB·PIT
31
shots
27
0 of 3
power play
0 of 3
43.2
faceoff %
56.8
15
hits
13
8
blocked shots
15
33
penalty minutes
14
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
J.J. MoserTB104
Evgeni MalkinPIT103
Kris LetangPIT011
Yanni GourdeTB011
Zemgus GirgensonsTB010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2726.963
Arturs SilovsPIT3130.968

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
TB +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: PIT 0 · TB 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 57%, PIT 43% · Updated Jan 13

Expected margin
TB by 0.7
Expected score
TB 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
Expected total
6.4
LightningThe matchupPenguins
−135Our fair odds+135
3.6Expected goals2.9
+0.42Power rating−0.06
3.6Goals / game3.2
2.6Allowed / game3.1
27.2Shots / game28.9
46.2Faceoff %50.2
19.2Hits / game17.1
28−16Season record21−23
10−0Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · PIT chance
Our model fair57.5%42.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning−13557%————
PITPittsburgh Penguins+13543%————
SpreadTB by 0.7
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.7our margin————
PITPittsburgh Penguins+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.7 expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 4%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 9%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 15%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 23%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 7%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 7%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 3%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 7 goals: <1%
← TB wins byPIT wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more29%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .907 save %, 2.38 GAAstarted
PITArturs Silovs G · last 5 starts: .881 save %, 2.96 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·PIT
Jan 12 at PHI
last game
Jan 11 at BOS
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
TB·PIT
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.6
goals / game
3.2
2.6
goals allowed / game
3.1
28−16
season record
21−23
12−9
home record
10−12
16−7
away record
11−11
W10
streak
L2
10−0
last 10
7−3
27.2
shots / game
28.9
46.2
faceoff %
50.2
19.2
hits / game
17.1
12.9
blocked shots / game
15.3
4.2
takeaways / game
4.7
14.4
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

TB · PIT · 88 days
Tampa Bay LightningPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Dec 4, 2025at TBPIT 4 − 3
Mar 25, 2025at TBTB 6 − 1
Jan 12, 2025at PITTB 5 − 2
Nov 19, 2024at PITTB 3 − 2 OT
Apr 6, 2024at PITPIT 5 − 4
Dec 6, 2023at TBTB 3 − 1
Nov 30, 2023at TBPIT 4 − 2
Mar 2, 2023at TBPIT 5 − 4 OT
Feb 26, 2023at PITPIT 7 − 3
Oct 15, 2022at PITPIT 6 − 2

TB · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Jan 12at PHI5 − 1W
Jan 10at PHI7 − 2W
Jan 6vs COL4 − 2W
Jan 3at SJ7 − 3W
Jan 1at LA5 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025at ANA4 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 27, 2025at FLA4 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025vs STL4 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025vs CAR6 − 4W

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Jan 11at BOS0 − 1L
Jan 10vs CGY1 − 2L
Jan 8vs NJ4 − 1W
Jan 4at CBJ5 − 4W
Jan 3at DET4 − 1W
Jan 1vs DET4 − 3W
Dec 30, 2025vs CAR5 − 1W
Dec 28, 2025at CHI7 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025at TOR3 − 6L
Dec 21, 2025vs MTL4 − 3W