bayesRatings

Devils at Penguins

NHL · Thursday, Jan 8 · 6:00 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · Final NJ 1 – PIT 4
← NHL / Jan 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NJ0011
PIT1214
Team box
NJ·PIT
29
shots
29
1 of 2
power play
1 of 3
55.9
faceoff %
44.1
25
hits
10
19
blocked shots
16
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Erik KarlssonPIT112
Connor DewarPIT111
Rickard RakellPIT024
Sidney CrosbyPIT021
Evgeni MalkinPIT104
Luke HughesNJ101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jake AllenNJ2925.862
Stuart SkinnerPIT2928.966

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
NJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: PIT 3 · NJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NJ 46%, PIT 54% · Updated Jan 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 3.2 – 3.0 NJ
Expected total
6.2
DevilsThe matchupPenguins
+118Our fair odds−118
3.0Expected goals3.2
−0.06Power rating−0.05
2.7Goals / game3.3
3.1Allowed / game3.2
30.0Shots / game28.9
50.0Faceoff %50.3
19.8Hits / game17.3
22−21Season record20−21
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NJ chance · PIT chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NJNew Jersey Devils+11846%————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−11854%————
Spreadabout even
NJNew Jersey Devils+0.2our margin————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 2%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 5%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 10%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 9%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 20%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 23%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 10%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 12%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 6%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 2%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%
← NJ wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more31%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 3 or more21%
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NJJake Allen G · last 5 starts: .930 save %, 2.40 GAAstarted
PITStuart Skinner G · last 5 starts: .874 save %, 2.87 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NJ·PIT
Jan 6 at NYI
last game
Jan 4 at CBJ
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
NJ·PIT
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
2.7
goals / game
3.3
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.2
22−21
season record
20−21
11−10
home record
9−11
11−11
away record
11−10
L2
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
6−4
30.0
shots / game
28.9
50.0
faceoff %
50.3
19.8
hits / game
17.3
14.7
blocked shots / game
15.2
4.7
takeaways / game
4.8
15.4
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

NJ · PIT · 83 days
New Jersey DevilsPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 3−7
Nov 8, 2025at NJNJ 2 − 1 SO
Apr 11, 2025at NJPIT 4 − 2
Mar 15, 2025at PITPIT 7 − 3
Feb 4, 2025at PITNJ 3 − 2 SO
Dec 21, 2024at NJNJ 3 − 0
Apr 2, 2024at NJPIT 6 − 3
Mar 19, 2024at NJNJ 5 − 2
Nov 16, 2023at PITNJ 5 − 2
Apr 4, 2023at NJNJ 5 − 1
Feb 18, 2023at PITNJ 5 − 2

NJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 6at NYI0 − 9L
Jan 4vs CAR1 − 3L
Jan 3vs UTAH4 − 1W
Dec 31, 2025at CBJ3 − 2W
Dec 30, 2025at TOR0 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs WSH3 − 4L
Dec 23, 2025at NYI1 − 2L
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF1 − 3L
Dec 19, 2025at UTAH2 − 1W
Dec 17, 2025at VGK2 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Jan 4at CBJ5 − 4W
Jan 3at DET4 − 1W
Jan 1vs DET4 − 3W
Dec 30, 2025vs CAR5 − 1W
Dec 28, 2025at CHI7 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025at TOR3 − 6L
Dec 21, 2025vs MTL4 − 3W
Dec 20, 2025at MTL0 − 4L
Dec 18, 2025at OTT0 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs EDM4 − 6L