bayesRatings

Devils at Islanders

NHL · Tuesday, Jan 6 · 6:30 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final NJ 0 – NYI 9
← NHL / Jan 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NJ0000
NYI3249
Team box
NJ·NYI
44
shots
24
0 of 3
power play
0 of 0
54.5
faceoff %
45.5
18
hits
16
5
blocked shots
17
0
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Anthony DuclairNYI323
Casey CizikasNYI213
Mathew BarzalNYI124
Tony DeAngeloNYI121
Ryan PulockNYI020
Simon HolmstromNYI102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jacob MarkstromNJ2415.625
Ilya SorokinNYI44441.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYI +9
NJ +9
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYI 9 · NJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NJ 46%, NYI 54% · Updated Jan 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYI 2.8 – 2.7 NJ
Expected total
5.4
DevilsThe matchupIslanders
+119Our fair odds−119
2.7Expected goals2.8
−0.06Power rating−0.04
2.7Goals / game2.9
3.0Allowed / game2.9
29.6Shots / game28.0
49.9Faceoff %51.1
19.8Hits / game18.6
22−20Season record23−19
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NJ chance · NYI chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NJNew Jersey Devils+11946%————
NYINew York Islanders−11954%————
Spreadabout even
NJNew Jersey Devils+0.1our margin————
NYINew York Islanders−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.4
Over5.4our total————
Under5.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 1%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 5%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 10%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 10%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 19%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 26%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 10%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 11%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 5%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 2%
← NJ wins byNYI wins by →
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more28%
New York Islanders wins by 3 or more18%
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal46%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.4 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 4%3 goals: 16%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 24%6 goals: 10%7 goals: 16%8 goals: 5%9 goals: 6%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.566%
Total over 5.542%
Total over 6.532%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NJJacob Markstrom G · last 5 starts: .932 save %, 1.84 GAAstarted
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .922 save %, 2.37 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NJ·NYI
Jan 4 vs CAR
last game
Jan 3 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
NJ·NYI
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
2.7
goals / game
2.9
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.9
22−20
season record
23−19
11−10
home record
13−10
11−10
away record
10−9
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
29.6
shots / game
28.0
49.9
faceoff %
51.1
19.8
hits / game
18.6
14.9
blocked shots / game
15.1
4.7
takeaways / game
4.5
15.3
giveaways / game
15.1

Rating Trend

NJ · NYI · 81 days
New Jersey DevilsNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYI 6−4
Dec 23, 2025at NYINYI 2 − 1
Nov 10, 2025at NJNYI 3 − 2 OT
Apr 13, 2025at NJNYI 1 − 0
Nov 9, 2024at NYINJ 4 − 3 OT
Oct 25, 2024at NJNYI 4 − 3 OT
Apr 15, 2024at NJNYI 4 − 1
Mar 24, 2024at NYINJ 4 − 0
Nov 28, 2023at NJNJ 5 − 4
Oct 20, 2023at NYINJ 5 − 4 OT
Mar 27, 2023at NYINYI 5 − 1

NJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 4vs CAR1 − 3L
Jan 3vs UTAH4 − 1W
Dec 31, 2025at CBJ3 − 2W
Dec 30, 2025at TOR0 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs WSH3 − 4L
Dec 23, 2025at NYI1 − 2L
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF1 − 3L
Dec 19, 2025at UTAH2 − 1W
Dec 17, 2025at VGK2 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025vs VAN1 − 2L

NYI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 3vs TOR4 − 3W
Jan 1vs UTAH2 − 7L
Dec 30, 2025at CHI3 − 2W
Dec 28, 2025at CBJ2 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs NYR2 − 0W
Dec 23, 2025vs NJ2 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at BUF2 − 3L
Dec 19, 2025vs VAN1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025at DET2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs TB3 − 2W