bayesRatings

Maple Leafs at Islanders

NHL · Saturday, Jan 3 · 6:00 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final TOR 3 – NYI 4
← NHL / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
TOR02103
NYI01214
Team box
TOR·NYI
21
shots
25
0 of 1
power play
0 of 1
57.1
faceoff %
42.9
19
hits
21
11
blocked shots
11
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Auston MatthewsTOR206
Matthew SchaeferNYI202
Emil HeinemanNYI112
Mathew BarzalNYI022
Jonathan DrouinNYI021
Adam PelechNYI102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joseph WollTOR2521.840
David RittichNYI2118.857

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYI +3
TOR +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: NYI 1 · TOR 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 48%, NYI 52% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 2.9 – 2.9 NYI
Expected total
5.8
Maple LeafsThe matchupIslanders
+109Our fair odds−109
2.9Expected goals2.9
+0.04Power rating−0.03
3.4Goals / game2.8
3.4Allowed / game2.9
27.3Shots / game28.0
56.2Faceoff %51.3
23.8Hits / game18.6
19−21Season record22−19
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · NYI chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Maple Leafs+10948%————
NYINew York Islanders−10952%————
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Maple Leafs−0.1our margin————
NYINew York Islanders+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 2%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 6%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 12%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 10%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 17%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 27%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 9%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 10%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 5%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%
← TOR wins byNYI wins by →
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more31%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 3 or more21%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TORJoseph Woll G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 2.61 GAAstarted
NYIDavid Rittich G · last 5 starts: .913 save %, 2.28 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·NYI
Jan 1 vs WPG
last game
Jan 1 vs UTAH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
TOR·NYI
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
3.4
goals / game
2.8
3.4
goals allowed / game
2.9
19−21
season record
22−19
14−10
home record
12−10
5−11
away record
10−9
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
27.3
shots / game
28.0
56.2
faceoff %
51.3
23.8
hits / game
18.6
15.2
blocked shots / game
15.2
4.7
takeaways / game
4.5
16.8
giveaways / game
15.1

Rating Trend

TOR · NYI · 78 days
Toronto Maple LeafsNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYI 6−4
Jan 2, 2025at NYITOR 2 − 1
Dec 31, 2024at TORTOR 3 − 1
Dec 21, 2024at TORNYI 6 − 3
Feb 5, 2024at TORNYI 3 − 2
Jan 11, 2024at NYINYI 4 − 3 OT
Dec 11, 2023at NYINYI 4 − 3 OT
Mar 21, 2023at NYINYI 7 − 2
Jan 23, 2023at TORTOR 5 − 2
Nov 21, 2022at TORNYI 3 − 2 OT
Apr 17, 2022at TORTOR 4 − 2

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 1vs WPG6 − 5W
Dec 30, 2025vs NJ4 − 0W
Dec 28, 2025at DET2 − 3L
Dec 27, 2025vs OTT7 − 5W
Dec 23, 2025vs PIT6 − 3W
Dec 21, 2025at DAL1 − 5L
Dec 20, 2025at NSH3 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025at WSH0 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025vs EDM3 − 6L

NYI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 1vs UTAH2 − 7L
Dec 30, 2025at CHI3 − 2W
Dec 28, 2025at CBJ2 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs NYR2 − 0W
Dec 23, 2025vs NJ2 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at BUF2 − 3L
Dec 19, 2025vs VAN1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025at DET2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025vs ANA5 − 2W