bayesRatings

Red Wings at Penguins

NHL · Thursday, Jan 1 · 6:00 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · Final DET 3 – PIT 4
← NHL / Jan 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
DET11103
PIT20114
Team box
DET·PIT
27
shots
31
2 of 8
power play
1 of 3
47.4
faceoff %
52.6
21
hits
15
17
blocked shots
18
6
penalty minutes
16
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Sidney CrosbyPIT214
Erik KarlssonPIT021
Alex DeBrincatDET103
James van RiemsdykDET102
Andrew CoppDET102
Kris LetangPIT102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Cam TalbotDET3127.871
Arturs SilovsPIT2724.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
DET +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: PIT 2 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, PIT 52% · Updated Jan 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 3.4 – 3.3 DET
Expected total
6.7
Red WingsThe matchupPenguins
+106Our fair odds−106
3.3Expected goals3.4
−0.03Power rating−0.13
3.1Goals / game3.2
3.2Allowed / game3.2
29.2Shots / game28.4
51.8Faceoff %50.1
17.7Hits / game17.3
24−17Season record17−21
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · PIT chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+10648%————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−10652%————
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 6%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 11%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 9%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 20%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 21%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 10%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 12%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 6%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 2%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%
← DET wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more31%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 3 or more21%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETCam Talbot G · last 5 starts: .892 save %, 3.10 GAAstarted
PITArturs Silovs G · last 5 starts: .866 save %, 3.65 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·PIT
Dec 31, 2025 vs WPG
last game
Dec 30, 2025 vs CAR
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
DET·PIT
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
3.1
goals / game
3.2
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.2
24−17
season record
17−21
14−8
home record
8−11
10−9
away record
9−10
W2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
3−7
29.2
shots / game
28.4
51.8
faceoff %
50.1
17.7
hits / game
17.3
16.7
blocked shots / game
15.2
4.2
takeaways / game
4.7
16.0
giveaways / game
16.3

Rating Trend

DET · PIT · 76 days
Detroit Red WingsPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Dec 31, 2024at DETDET 4 − 2
Nov 13, 2024at PITDET 3 − 2 OT
Oct 10, 2024at DETPIT 6 − 3
Apr 11, 2024at PITPIT 6 − 5 OT
Mar 17, 2024at PITPIT 6 − 3
Oct 18, 2023at DETDET 6 − 3
Apr 8, 2023at DETPIT 5 − 1
Mar 28, 2023at DETDET 7 − 4
Dec 28, 2022at PITDET 5 − 4 OT
Apr 23, 2022at DETPIT 7 − 2

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Dec 31, 2025vs WPG2 − 1W
Dec 28, 2025vs TOR3 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025at CAR2 − 5L
Dec 23, 2025vs DAL4 − 3W
Dec 21, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH5 − 2W
Dec 17, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs NYI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at CHI4 − 0W
Dec 11, 2025at EDM1 − 4L

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Dec 30, 2025vs CAR5 − 1W
Dec 28, 2025at CHI7 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025at TOR3 − 6L
Dec 21, 2025vs MTL4 − 3W
Dec 20, 2025at MTL0 − 4L
Dec 18, 2025at OTT0 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs EDM4 − 6L
Dec 14, 2025vs UTAH4 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025vs SJ5 − 6L
Dec 11, 2025vs MTL2 − 4L