bayesRatings

Penguins at Red Wings

NHL · Saturday, Jan 3 · 11:00 AM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final PIT 4 – DET 1
← NHL / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
PIT2024
DET0101
Team box
PIT·DET
31
shots
12
0 of 2
power play
0 of 2
54.2
faceoff %
45.8
20
hits
21
13
blocked shots
12
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Sidney CrosbyPIT021
Parker WotherspoonPIT021
Rickard RakellPIT106
Bryan RustPIT105
Alex DeBrincatDET104
Connor DewarPIT103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Stuart SkinnerPIT1211.917
John GibsonDET2927.931

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
PIT +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: DET 0 · PIT 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 44%, DET 56% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 3.5 – 3.1 PIT
Expected total
6.6
PenguinsThe matchupRed Wings
+130Our fair odds−130
3.1Expected goals3.5
−0.13Power rating−0.03
3.2Goals / game3.1
3.2Allowed / game3.2
28.5Shots / game29.1
50.2Faceoff %51.7
17.3Hits / game17.8
18−21Season record24−18
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · DET chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Penguins+13044%————
DETDetroit Red Wings−13056%————
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Penguins+0.4our margin————
DETDetroit Red Wings−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 2%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 5%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 9%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 8%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 19%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 22%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 11%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 13%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 7%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 3%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: 1%
← PIT wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more35%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 3 or more24%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PITStuart Skinner G · last 5 starts: .890 save %, 2.87 GAAstarted
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .906 save %, 2.42 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·DET
Jan 1 vs DET
last game
Jan 1 at PIT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
PIT·DET
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
3.2
goals / game
3.1
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.2
18−21
season record
24−18
9−11
home record
14−8
9−10
away record
10−10
W3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
7−3
28.5
shots / game
29.1
50.2
faceoff %
51.7
17.3
hits / game
17.8
15.3
blocked shots / game
16.7
4.7
takeaways / game
4.2
16.2
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

PIT · DET · 78 days
Pittsburgh PenguinsDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 5−5
Jan 1at PITPIT 4 − 3 OT
Dec 31, 2024at DETDET 4 − 2
Nov 13, 2024at PITDET 3 − 2 OT
Oct 10, 2024at DETPIT 6 − 3
Apr 11, 2024at PITPIT 6 − 5 OT
Mar 17, 2024at PITPIT 6 − 3
Oct 18, 2023at DETDET 6 − 3
Apr 8, 2023at DETPIT 5 − 1
Mar 28, 2023at DETDET 7 − 4
Dec 28, 2022at PITDET 5 − 4 OT

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Jan 1vs DET4 − 3W
Dec 30, 2025vs CAR5 − 1W
Dec 28, 2025at CHI7 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025at TOR3 − 6L
Dec 21, 2025vs MTL4 − 3W
Dec 20, 2025at MTL0 − 4L
Dec 18, 2025at OTT0 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs EDM4 − 6L
Dec 14, 2025vs UTAH4 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025vs SJ5 − 6L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 1at PIT3 − 4L
Dec 31, 2025vs WPG2 − 1W
Dec 28, 2025vs TOR3 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025at CAR2 − 5L
Dec 23, 2025vs DAL4 − 3W
Dec 21, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH5 − 2W
Dec 17, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs NYI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at CHI4 − 0W