bayesRatings

Lightning at Flyers

NHL · Saturday, Jan 10 · 6:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final TB 7 – PHI 2
← NHL / Jan 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TB2147
PHI1012
Team box
TB·PHI
23
shots
20
0 of 2
power play
1 of 2
63.0
faceoff %
37.0
18
hits
32
6
blocked shots
14
9
penalty minutes
9
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nikita KucherovTB222
Brayden PointTB030
Gage GoncalvesTB202
Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB021
Anthony CirelliTB020
Owen TippettPHI103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2018.900
Samuel ErssonPHI2316.696

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +5
TB +5
P1P2P3
largest lead: PHI 0 · TB 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 55%, PHI 45% · Updated Jan 10

Expected margin
TB by 0.7
Expected score
TB 3.5 – 2.8 PHI
Expected total
6.2
LightningThe matchupFlyers
−123Our fair odds+123
3.5Expected goals2.8
+0.30Power rating−0.07
3.5Goals / game3.1
2.7Allowed / game2.9
27.4Shots / game26.2
46.0Faceoff %49.2
19.5Hits / game21.5
26−16Season record22−20
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · PHI chance
Our model fair55.2%44.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning−12355%————
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+12345%————
SpreadTB by 0.7
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.7our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.7 expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 3%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 9%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 15%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 24%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 7%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 7%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 3%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 1%Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%Philadelphia Flyers by 7 goals: <1%
← TB wins byPHI wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more29%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .917 save %, 2.18 GAAstarted
PHISamuel Ersson G · last 5 starts: .861 save %, 3.31 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·PHI
Jan 6 vs COL
last game
Jan 8 vs TOR
3 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
TB·PHI
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.5
goals / game
3.1
2.7
goals allowed / game
2.9
26−16
season record
22−20
12−9
home record
12−10
14−7
away record
10−10
W8
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
5−5
27.4
shots / game
26.2
46.0
faceoff %
49.2
19.5
hits / game
21.5
13.1
blocked shots / game
15.1
4.1
takeaways / game
4.2
14.5
giveaways / game
14.4

Rating Trend

TB · PHI · 85 days
Tampa Bay LightningPhiladelphia Flyers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 4−6
Nov 24, 2025at TBTB 3 − 0
Mar 17, 2025at TBTB 2 − 0
Mar 13, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 3 SO
Nov 7, 2024at TBPHI 2 − 1 SO
Mar 9, 2024at TBTB 7 − 0
Feb 27, 2024at PHIPHI 6 − 2
Jan 23, 2024at PHITB 6 − 3
Mar 7, 2023at TBTB 5 − 2
Dec 1, 2022at PHITB 4 − 1
Oct 18, 2022at TBPHI 3 − 2

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W8
Jan 6vs COL4 − 2W
Jan 3at SJ7 − 3W
Jan 1at LA5 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025at ANA4 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 27, 2025at FLA4 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025vs STL4 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025vs CAR6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs LA1 − 2L
Dec 15, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 8vs TOR1 − 2L
Jan 6vs ANA5 − 2W
Jan 3at EDM5 − 2W
Dec 31, 2025at CGY1 − 5L
Dec 30, 2025at VAN6 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025at SEA1 − 4L
Dec 23, 2025at CHI3 − 1W
Dec 22, 2025vs VAN5 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025at NYR4 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025at BUF3 − 5L