bayesRatings

Sharks at Capitals

NHL · Thursday, Jan 15 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final SJ 3 – WSH 2
← NHL / Jan 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SJ0303
WSH0112
Team box
SJ·WSH
26
shots
23
0 of 3
power play
1 of 2
58.3
faceoff %
41.7
16
hits
18
10
blocked shots
14
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Collin GrafSJ113
Pavol RegendaSJ111
Dylan StromeWSH103
Zack OstapchukSJ102
Ryan LeonardWSH102
Macklin CelebriniSJ016
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Alex NedeljkovicSJ2321.913
Logan ThompsonWSH2623.885

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
SJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WSH 1 · SJ 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SJ 34%, WSH 66% · Updated Jan 15

Expected margin
WSH by 1.3
Expected score
WSH 4.0 – 2.8 SJ
Expected total
6.8
SharksThe matchupCapitals
+195Our fair odds−195
2.8Expected goals4.0
−0.39Power rating+0.12
3.2Goals / game3.3
3.6Allowed / game2.9
25.3Shots / game29.4
47.5Faceoff %49.1
20.6Hits / game19.4
23−22Season record24−23
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SJ chance · WSH chance
Our model fair33.9%66.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SJSan Jose Sharks+19534%————
WSHWashington Capitals−19566%————
SpreadWSH by 1.3
SJSan Jose Sharks+1.3our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.8
Over6.8our total————
Under6.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Capitals by 1.3 expected
San Jose Sharks by 7 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 1%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 2%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 5%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 5%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 19%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 17%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 18%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 5%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 7 goals: 1%
← SJ wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more51%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more38%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more14%
Decided by one goal36%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

6.8 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 6.554%
Total over 7.535%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SJAlex Nedeljkovic G · last 5 starts: .847 save %, 3.67 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .919 save %, 2.36 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SJ·WSH
Jan 11 vs VGK
last game
Jan 13 vs MTL
3 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
SJ·WSH
−0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
3.2
goals / game
3.3
3.6
goals allowed / game
2.9
23−22
season record
24−23
13−12
home record
14−11
10−10
away record
10−12
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
25.3
shots / game
29.4
47.5
faceoff %
49.1
20.6
hits / game
19.4
15.7
blocked shots / game
15.2
4.6
takeaways / game
4.4
15.4
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

SJ · WSH · 90 days
San Jose SharksWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 5−4
Dec 3, 2025at SJWSH 7 − 1
Mar 15, 2025at SJWSH 5 − 1
Dec 3, 2024at WSHSJ 2 − 1 OT
Nov 27, 2023at SJSJ 2 − 1
Oct 29, 2023at WSHWSH 3 − 1
Mar 4, 2023at SJWSH 8 − 3
Feb 12, 2023at WSHSJ 4 − 1
Jan 26, 2022at WSHSJ 4 − 1
Nov 20, 2021at SJWSH 4 − 0

SJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 11vs VGK2 − 7L
Jan 10vs DAL5 − 4W
Jan 7at LA4 − 3W
Jan 6vs CBJ5 − 2W
Jan 3vs TB3 − 7L
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN4 − 3W
Dec 29, 2025at ANA5 − 4W
Dec 27, 2025at VAN6 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025at VGK2 − 7L
Dec 20, 2025vs SEA2 − 4L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 13vs MTL3 − 2W
Jan 11at NSH2 − 3L
Jan 9at CHI5 − 1W
Jan 7vs DAL1 − 4L
Jan 5vs ANA7 − 4W
Jan 3vs CHI2 − 3L
Jan 1at OTT3 − 4L
Dec 31, 2025vs NYR6 − 3W
Dec 29, 2025at FLA3 − 5L
Dec 27, 2025at NJ4 − 3W