bayesRatings

Stars at Capitals

NHL · Wednesday, Jan 7 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final DAL 4 – WSH 1
← NHL / Jan 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DAL1124
WSH0011
Team box
DAL·WSH
36
shots
24
0 of 2
power play
0 of 2
44.4
faceoff %
55.6
16
hits
22
11
blocked shots
16
11
penalty minutes
11
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Sam SteelDAL111
Roope HintzDAL1012
Wyatt JohnstonDAL105
Radek FaksaDAL103
Alex OvechkinWSH102
Jakob ChychrunWSH016
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Casey DeSmithDAL2423.958
Logan ThompsonWSH3532.914

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
DAL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WSH 0 · DAL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 49%, WSH 51% · Updated Jan 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.1 – 3.1 DAL
Expected total
6.2
StarsThe matchupCapitals
+103Our fair odds−103
3.1Expected goals3.1
+0.24Power rating+0.12
3.5Goals / game3.3
2.9Allowed / game2.9
25.3Shots / game29.3
52.3Faceoff %49.0
18.7Hits / game19.5
25−18Season record22−21
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Stars+10349%————
WSHWashington Capitals−10351%————
Spreadabout even
DALDallas Stars+0.1our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Dallas Stars by 6 goals: <1%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 2%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 5%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 10%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 9%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 22%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 20%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 10%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 6%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%
← DAL wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more31%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more20%
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DALCasey DeSmith G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 2.86 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .874 save %, 3.75 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·WSH
Jan 6 at CAR
last game
Jan 5 vs ANA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
DAL·WSH
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
3.5
goals / game
3.3
2.9
goals allowed / game
2.9
25−18
season record
22−21
12−9
home record
13−10
13−9
away record
9−11
L6
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
25.3
shots / game
29.3
52.3
faceoff %
49.0
18.7
hits / game
19.5
15.3
blocked shots / game
15.5
4.7
takeaways / game
4.4
14.7
giveaways / game
15.2

Rating Trend

DAL · WSH · 82 days
Dallas StarsWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 2−7
Oct 28, 2025at DALDAL 1 − 0
Dec 16, 2024at DALDAL 3 − 1
Oct 17, 2024at WSHWSH 3 − 2
Jan 27, 2024at DALDAL 5 − 4 OT
Dec 7, 2023at WSHDAL 5 − 4 SO
Dec 15, 2022at WSHDAL 2 − 1
Oct 27, 2022at DALDAL 2 − 0
Mar 20, 2022at WSHDAL 3 − 2
Jan 28, 2022at DALWSH 5 − 0

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L6
Jan 6at CAR3 − 6L
Jan 4vs MTL3 − 4L
Jan 1at CHI3 − 4L
Dec 31, 2025vs BUF1 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs CHI3 − 4L
Dec 23, 2025at DET3 − 4L
Dec 21, 2025vs TOR5 − 1W
Dec 19, 2025at ANA8 − 3W
Dec 18, 2025at SJ5 − 3W
Dec 15, 2025vs LA4 − 1W

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 5vs ANA7 − 4W
Jan 3vs CHI2 − 3L
Jan 1at OTT3 − 4L
Dec 31, 2025vs NYR6 − 3W
Dec 29, 2025at FLA3 − 5L
Dec 27, 2025at NJ4 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025vs NYR3 − 7L
Dec 21, 2025at DET2 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025vs DET2 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR4 − 0W