bayesRatings

Canadiens at Stars

NHL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 1:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final MTL 4 – DAL 3
← NHL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
MTL12014
DAL11103
Team box
MTL·DAL
28
shots
27
1 of 5
power play
0 of 3
42.2
faceoff %
57.8
30
hits
15
13
blocked shots
16
6
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Wyatt JohnstonDAL203
Juraj SlafkovskyMTL114
Lane HutsonMTL111
Phillip DanaultMTL022
Mavrik BourqueDAL105
Brendan GallagherMTL104
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Sam MontembeaultMTL2724.889
Jake OettingerDAL2824.857

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: DAL 1 · MTL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 37%, DAL 63% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
DAL by 1.1
Expected score
DAL 3.8 – 2.8 MTL
Expected total
6.6
CanadiensThe matchupStars
+174Our fair odds−174
2.8Expected goals3.8
−0.05Power rating+0.35
3.3Goals / game3.5
3.4Allowed / game2.8
25.7Shots / game25.3
50.0Faceoff %52.4
21.2Hits / game18.6
22−19Season record25−16
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · DAL chance
Our model fair36.5%63.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+17437%————
DALDallas Stars−17463%————
SpreadDAL by 1.1
MTLMontreal Canadiens+1.1our margin————
DALDallas Stars−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Stars by 1.1 expected
Montreal Canadiens by 7 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 1%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 2%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 6%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 6%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 20%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 17%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 12%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 17%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 11%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 5%Dallas Stars by 6 goals: 1%Dallas Stars by 7 goals: 1%
← MTL wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more47%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more35%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more15%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLSam Montembeault G · last 5 starts: .889 save %, 3.00 GAAstarted
DALJake Oettinger G · last 5 starts: .901 save %, 2.82 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·DAL
Jan 3 at STL
last game
Jan 1 at CHI
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
MTL·DAL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
3.3
goals / game
3.5
3.4
goals allowed / game
2.8
22−19
season record
25−16
10−10
home record
12−8
12−9
away record
13−8
L1
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
4−6
25.7
shots / game
25.3
50.0
faceoff %
52.4
21.2
hits / game
18.6
16.2
blocked shots / game
15.4
4.3
takeaways / game
4.6
13.6
giveaways / game
14.7

Rating Trend

MTL · DAL · 79 days
Montreal CanadiensDallas Stars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DAL 6−3
Nov 13, 2025at MTLDAL 7 − 0
Jan 16, 2025at DALMTL 3 − 1
Jan 11, 2025at MTLDAL 2 − 1 SO
Feb 10, 2024at MTLDAL 3 − 2
Jan 2, 2024at DALMTL 4 − 3
Dec 23, 2022at DALDAL 4 − 2
Oct 22, 2022at MTLDAL 5 − 2
Mar 17, 2022at MTLDAL 4 − 3 OT
Jan 18, 2022at DALMTL 5 − 3

MTL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 3at STL0 − 2L
Jan 1at CAR7 − 5W
Dec 30, 2025at FLA3 − 2W
Dec 28, 2025at TB4 − 5L
Dec 23, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Dec 21, 2025at PIT3 − 4L
Dec 20, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W
Dec 18, 2025vs CHI4 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025vs PHI1 − 4L
Dec 14, 2025vs EDM4 − 1W

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jan 1at CHI3 − 4L
Dec 31, 2025vs BUF1 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs CHI3 − 4L
Dec 23, 2025at DET3 − 4L
Dec 21, 2025vs TOR5 − 1W
Dec 19, 2025at ANA8 − 3W
Dec 18, 2025at SJ5 − 3W
Dec 15, 2025vs LA4 − 1W
Dec 13, 2025vs FLA0 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025at MIN2 − 5L