bayesRatings

Lightning at Blues

NHL · Friday, Jan 16 · 7:00 PM CT · Enterprise Center · Final TB 2 – STL 3
← NHL / Jan 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
TB020002
STL200013
Team box
TB·STL
36
shots
21
2 of 3
power play
0 of 2
53.8
faceoff %
46.2
12
hits
24
10
blocked shots
10
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nikita KucherovTB113
Darren RaddyshTB026
Oliver BjorkstrandTB102
Nick BjugstadSTL101
Jake NeighboursSTL101
Jordan KyrouSTL014
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2119.905
Joel HoferSTL3634.944

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
TB +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: STL 2 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 60%, STL 40% · Updated Jan 16

Expected margin
TB by 1.1
Expected score
TB 3.5 – 2.4 STL
Expected total
5.9
LightningThe matchupBlues
−148Our fair odds+148
3.5Expected goals2.4
+0.42Power rating−0.16
3.6Goals / game2.5
2.6Allowed / game3.4
27.3Shots / game24.8
46.1Faceoff %50.3
19.1Hits / game23.3
29−16Season record18−29
10−0Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · STL chance
Our model fair59.7%40.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning−14860%————
STLSt. Louis Blues+14840%————
SpreadTB by 1.1
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Blues+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.1 expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 4%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 10%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 22%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 6%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 5%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 1%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 7 goals: <1%
← TB wins bySTL wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more47%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more34%
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more14%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 2.15 GAAstarted
STLJoel Hofer G · last 5 starts: .918 save %, 2.43 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·STL
Jan 13 at PIT
last game
Jan 13 vs CAR
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
TB·STL
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
3.6
goals / game
2.5
2.6
goals allowed / game
3.4
29−16
season record
18−29
12−9
home record
11−14
17−7
away record
7−15
W11
streak
W1
10−0
last 10
4−6
27.3
shots / game
24.8
46.1
faceoff %
50.3
19.1
hits / game
23.3
12.8
blocked shots / game
15.0
4.1
takeaways / game
4.2
14.5
giveaways / game
14.4

Rating Trend

TB · STL · 91 days
Tampa Bay LightningSt. Louis Blues
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · STL 3−6
Dec 22, 2025at TBTB 4 − 1
Dec 19, 2024at TBTB 3 − 1
Nov 5, 2024at STLSTL 3 − 2
Dec 19, 2023at TBTB 6 − 1
Nov 14, 2023at STLSTL 5 − 0
Jan 14, 2023at STLTB 4 − 2
Nov 25, 2022at TBTB 5 − 2
Dec 2, 2021at TBTB 4 − 2
Nov 30, 2021at STLSTL 4 − 3 SO

TB · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Jan 13at PIT2 − 1W
Jan 12at PHI5 − 1W
Jan 10at PHI7 − 2W
Jan 6vs COL4 − 2W
Jan 3at SJ7 − 3W
Jan 1at LA5 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025at ANA4 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 27, 2025at FLA4 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025vs STL4 − 1W

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 13vs CAR3 − 0W
Jan 10at VGK2 − 4L
Jan 9at UTAH2 − 4L
Jan 7at CHI3 − 7L
Jan 3vs MTL2 − 0W
Jan 2vs VGK4 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025at COL1 − 6L
Dec 29, 2025vs BUF2 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs NSH3 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025at TB1 − 4L