bayesRatings

Stars at Blue Jackets

NHL · Thursday, Jan 22 · 6:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final DAL 0 – CBJ 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DAL0000
CBJ1001
Team box
DAL·CBJ
28
shots
22
0 of 2
power play
0 of 1
49.1
faceoff %
50.9
7
hits
35
10
blocked shots
17
2
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Zach WerenskiCBJ103
Damon SeversonCBJ011
Isac LundestromCBJ010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Casey DeSmithDAL2221.955
Jet GreavesCBJ28281.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
DAL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 1 · DAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 52%, CBJ 48% · Updated Jan 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DAL 3.4 – 3.1 CBJ
Expected total
6.4
StarsThe matchupBlue Jackets
−110Our fair odds+110
3.4Expected goals3.1
+0.19Power rating−0.09
3.4Goals / game3.0
2.8Allowed / game3.3
25.4Shots / game30.4
52.2Faceoff %50.5
18.4Hits / game19.3
28−22Season record22−27
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Stars−11052%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+11048%————
Spreadabout even
DALDallas Stars−0.3our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Dallas Stars by 6 goals: 1%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 3%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 7%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 13%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 11%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 19%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 23%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 8%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 5%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%
← DAL wins byCBJ wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more34%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more24%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DALCasey DeSmith G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 2.87 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .894 save %, 3.04 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·CBJ
Jan 20 vs BOS
last game
Jan 20 vs OTT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
DAL·CBJ
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
3.4
goals / game
3.0
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.3
28−22
season record
22−27
13−10
home record
11−12
15−12
away record
11−15
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
25.4
shots / game
30.4
52.2
faceoff %
50.5
18.4
hits / game
19.3
15.2
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.7
takeaways / game
4.9
14.8
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

DAL · CBJ · 97 days
Dallas StarsColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CBJ 4−5
Oct 21, 2025at DALCBJ 5 − 1
Feb 25, 2025at CBJCBJ 6 − 4
Feb 2, 2025at DALDAL 5 − 3
Nov 9, 2023at CBJDAL 5 − 2
Oct 30, 2023at DALDAL 5 − 3
Feb 18, 2023at DALCBJ 4 − 1
Dec 19, 2022at CBJDAL 2 − 1
Dec 2, 2021at DALDAL 3 − 2
Oct 25, 2021at CBJCBJ 4 − 1

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jan 20vs BOS6 − 2W
Jan 18vs TB1 − 4L
Jan 15at UTAH1 − 2L
Jan 13at ANA1 − 3L
Jan 12at LA3 − 1W
Jan 10at SJ4 − 5L
Jan 7at WSH4 − 1W
Jan 6at CAR3 − 6L
Jan 4vs MTL3 − 4L
Jan 1at CHI3 − 4L

CBJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 20vs OTT1 − 4L
Jan 17at PIT4 − 3W
Jan 15vs VAN4 − 1W
Jan 13vs CGY5 − 3W
Jan 11at UTAH3 − 2W
Jan 10at COL0 − 4L
Jan 8at VGK3 − 5L
Jan 6at SJ2 − 5L
Jan 4vs PIT4 − 5L
Jan 3vs BUF5 − 1W