bayesRatings

Bruins at Lightning

NHL · Sunday, Feb 1 · 5:30 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · neutral site · Final BOS 5 – TB 6
← NHL / Feb 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
BOS320005
TB131016
Team box
BOS·TB
34
shots
46
1 of 3
power play
3 of 8
42.6
faceoff %
57.4
20
hits
22
19
blocked shots
12
25
penalty minutes
15
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nikita KucherovTB138
Morgan GeekieBOS213
Brandon HagelTB126
Darren RaddyshTB117
Jake GuentzelTB023
Charlie McAvoyBOS021
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jeremy SwaymanBOS4641.891
Andrei VasilevskiyTB3429.853

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
BOS +4
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: TB 1 · BOS 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 40%, TB 60% · Updated Feb 1

Expected margin
TB by 0.9
Expected score
TB 3.6 – 2.7 BOS
Expected total
6.3
BruinsThe matchupLightning
+152Our fair odds−152
2.7Expected goals3.6
+0.01Power rating+0.43
3.4Goals / game3.5
3.1Allowed / game2.5
27.0Shots / game27.7
52.0Faceoff %46.7
23.7Hits / game18.9
32−23Season record34−18
8−2Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · TB chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins+15240%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−15260%————
SpreadTB by 0.9
BOSBoston Bruins+0.9our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.9 expected
Boston Bruins by 7 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 1%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 3%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 6%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 6%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 22%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 17%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 10%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 4%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%
← BOS wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more44%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more32%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more17%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .895 save %, 3.35 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .965 save %, 0.79 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·TB
Jan 29 vs PHI
last game
Jan 29 vs WPG
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
BOS·TB
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
3.4
goals / game
3.5
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.5
32−23
season record
34−18
21−9
home record
15−9
11−14
away record
19−9
W2
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
8−2
27.0
shots / game
27.7
52.0
faceoff %
46.7
23.7
hits / game
18.9
15.5
blocked shots / game
12.7
4.9
takeaways / game
4.1
16.2
giveaways / game
14.8

Rating Trend

BOS · TB · 107 days
Boston BruinsTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Oct 13, 2025at BOSTB 4 − 3
Mar 15, 2025at BOSTB 6 − 2
Mar 8, 2025at TBBOS 4 − 0
Jan 14, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 2
Jan 9, 2025at TBTB 4 − 1
Mar 27, 2024at TBTB 3 − 1
Feb 13, 2024at BOSTB 3 − 2 SO
Jan 6, 2024at BOSBOS 7 − 3
Nov 20, 2023at TBTB 5 − 4 OT
Mar 25, 2023at BOSBOS 2 − 1

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Jan 29vs PHI6 − 3W
Jan 27vs NSH3 − 2W
Jan 26at NYR3 − 4L
Jan 24vs MTL4 − 3W
Jan 22vs VGK4 − 3W
Jan 20at DAL2 − 6L
Jan 17at CHI5 − 2W
Jan 15vs SEA4 − 2W
Jan 13vs DET3 − 0W
Jan 11vs PIT1 − 0W

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Jan 29vs WPG4 − 1W
Jan 26vs UTAH2 − 0W
Jan 24at CBJ5 − 8L
Jan 23at CHI2 − 1W
Jan 20vs SJ4 − 1W
Jan 18at DAL4 − 1W
Jan 16at STL2 − 3L
Jan 13at PIT2 − 1W
Jan 12at PHI5 − 1W
Jan 10at PHI7 − 2W