bayesRatings

Bruins at Rangers

NHL · Monday, Jan 26 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final BOS 3 – NYR 4
← NHL / Jan 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
BOS12003
NYR20114
Team box
BOS·NYR
24
shots
28
0 of 1
power play
0 of 4
50.9
faceoff %
49.1
17
hits
34
13
blocked shots
12
8
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
David PastrnakBOS032
Elias LindholmBOS204
Morgan GeekieBOS104
Will BorgenNYR103
Will CuylleNYR103
Matthew RobertsonNYR102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joonas KorpisaloBOS2824.857
Jonathan QuickNYR2421.875

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +3
BOS +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: NYR 1 · BOS 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 49%, NYR 51% · Updated Jan 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 3.0 – 3.0 NYR
Expected total
6.0
BruinsThe matchupRangers
+106Our fair odds−106
3.0Expected goals3.0
+0.01Power rating−0.11
3.3Goals / game2.7
3.1Allowed / game3.1
27.1Shots / game26.0
51.7Faceoff %54.8
23.9Hits / game26.0
30−22Season record21−31
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NYR chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins+10649%————
NYRNew York Rangers−10651%————
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Bruins−0.1our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 6%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 12%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 18%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 25%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 5%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%
← BOS wins byNYR wins by →
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more31%
Boston Bruins wins by 3 or more21%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BOSJoonas Korpisalo G · last 5 starts: .938 save %, 1.82 GAAstarted
NYRJonathan Quick G · last 5 starts: .795 save %, 5.81 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NYR
Jan 24 vs MTL
last game
Jan 23 at SJ
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
BOS·NYR
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
3.3
goals / game
2.7
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.1
30−22
season record
21−31
19−9
home record
5−17
11−13
away record
16−14
W2
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
2−8
27.1
shots / game
26.0
51.7
faceoff %
54.8
23.9
hits / game
26.0
15.8
blocked shots / game
15.3
4.9
takeaways / game
4.4
16.1
giveaways / game
14.8

Rating Trend

BOS · NYR · 101 days
Boston BruinsNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 6−4
Jan 10at BOSBOS 10 − 2
Nov 28, 2025at BOSNYR 6 − 2
Feb 5, 2025at NYRNYR 3 − 2
Feb 1, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jan 2, 2025at NYRNYR 2 − 1
Mar 21, 2024at BOSNYR 5 − 2
Dec 16, 2023at BOSNYR 2 − 1 OT
Nov 25, 2023at NYRNYR 7 − 4
Mar 4, 2023at BOSBOS 4 − 2
Jan 19, 2023at NYRBOS 3 − 1

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Jan 24vs MTL4 − 3W
Jan 22vs VGK4 − 3W
Jan 20at DAL2 − 6L
Jan 17at CHI5 − 2W
Jan 15vs SEA4 − 2W
Jan 13vs DET3 − 0W
Jan 11vs PIT1 − 0W
Jan 10vs NYR10 − 2W
Jan 8vs CGY4 − 1W
Jan 6at SEA4 − 7L

NYR · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Jan 23at SJ1 − 3L
Jan 20at LA3 − 4L
Jan 19at ANA3 − 5L
Jan 17at PHI6 − 3W
Jan 14vs OTT4 − 8L
Jan 12vs SEA2 − 4L
Jan 10at BOS2 − 10L
Jan 8vs BUF2 − 5L
Jan 5vs UTAH2 − 3L
Jan 2at FLA5 − 1W