bayesRatings

Senators at Rangers

NHL · Wednesday, Jan 14 · 6:30 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final OTT 8 – NYR 4
← NHL / Jan 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
OTT4228
NYR0134
Team box
OTT·NYR
30
shots
22
1 of 3
power play
1 of 1
34.0
faceoff %
66.0
13
hits
38
16
blocked shots
20
2
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Brady TkachukOTT136
Dylan CozensOTT124
Ridly GreigOTT030
Gabe PerreaultNYR202
Alexis LafreniereNYR112
Nick JensenOTT112
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Leevi MerilainenOTT2218.818
Spencer MartinNYR1211.917
Jonathan QuickNYR1711.647

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +6
OTT +6
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 0 · OTT 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OTT 47%, NYR 53% · Updated Jan 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.0 – 2.9 OTT
Expected total
5.9
SenatorsThe matchupRangers
+114Our fair odds−114
2.9Expected goals3.0
−0.05Power rating−0.10
3.2Goals / game2.6
3.3Allowed / game3.0
28.5Shots / game25.8
55.3Faceoff %54.0
24.1Hits / game26.1
21−24Season record20−27
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · NYR chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators+11447%————
NYRNew York Rangers−11453%————
Spreadabout even
OTTOttawa Senators+0.1our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 5%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 11%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 10%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 20%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 24%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%
← OTT wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more29%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more19%
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
OTTLeevi Merilainen G · last 5 starts: .883 save %, 2.59 GAAstarted
NYRJonathan Quick G · last 5 starts: .812 save %, 4.94 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·NYR
Jan 13 vs VAN
last game
Jan 12 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
OTT·NYR
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
3.2
goals / game
2.6
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.0
21−24
season record
20−27
11−12
home record
5−16
10−12
away record
15−11
W1
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
2−8
28.5
shots / game
25.8
55.3
faceoff %
54.0
24.1
hits / game
26.1
13.7
blocked shots / game
15.1
4.8
takeaways / game
4.5
14.1
giveaways / game
14.6

Rating Trend

OTT · NYR · 89 days
Ottawa SenatorsNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 6−4
Dec 4, 2025at OTTNYR 4 − 2
Mar 8, 2025at OTTOTT 4 − 3 OT
Jan 21, 2025at NYRNYR 5 − 0
Nov 1, 2024at NYRNYR 2 − 1
Apr 15, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 0
Jan 27, 2024at OTTNYR 7 − 2
Dec 5, 2023at OTTOTT 6 − 2
Mar 2, 2023at NYROTT 5 − 3
Dec 2, 2022at NYROTT 3 − 2 OT
Nov 30, 2022at OTTNYR 3 − 1

OTT · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jan 13vs VAN2 − 1W
Jan 10vs FLA2 − 3L
Jan 8at COL2 − 8L
Jan 7at UTAH1 − 3L
Jan 5vs DET3 − 5L
Jan 3vs WPG4 − 2W
Jan 1vs WSH4 − 3W
Dec 29, 2025vs CBJ1 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025at TOR5 − 7L
Dec 23, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L

NYR · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Jan 12vs SEA2 − 4L
Jan 10at BOS2 − 10L
Jan 8vs BUF2 − 5L
Jan 5vs UTAH2 − 3L
Jan 2at FLA5 − 1W
Dec 31, 2025at WSH3 − 6L
Dec 29, 2025at CAR2 − 3L
Dec 27, 2025at NYI0 − 2L
Dec 23, 2025at WSH7 − 3W
Dec 21, 2025at NSH1 − 2L