bayesRatings

Senators at Avalanche

NHL · Thursday, Jan 8 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final OTT 2 – COL 8
← NHL / Jan 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
OTT0112
COL2608
Team box
OTT·COL
31
shots
34
0 of 3
power play
2 of 6
45.9
faceoff %
54.1
38
hits
12
14
blocked shots
21
42
penalty minutes
16
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Josh MansonCOL225
Nathan MacKinnonCOL135
Brock NelsonCOL212
Cale MakarCOL121
Ross ColtonCOL034
Martin NecasCOL112
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Leevi MerilainenOTT1815.833
Mads SogaardOTT1611.688
Scott WedgewoodCOL3129.935

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +7
OTT +7
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 7 · OTT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OTT 28%, COL 72% · Updated Jan 8

Expected margin
COL by 1.5
Expected score
COL 4.0 – 2.5 OTT
Expected total
6.6
SenatorsThe matchupAvalanche
+255Our fair odds−255
2.5Expected goals4.0
−0.01Power rating+0.79
3.3Goals / game4.0
3.3Allowed / game2.3
28.4Shots / game34.5
55.5Faceoff %51.4
23.8Hits / game17.5
20−22Season record31−11
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · COL chance
Our model fair28.1%71.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators+25528%————
COLColorado Avalanche−25572%————
SpreadCOL by 1.5
OTTOttawa Senators+1.5our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.5 expected
Ottawa Senators by 8 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 7 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 1%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 5%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 5%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 20%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 6%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: <1%
← OTT wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more53%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more40%
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more12%
Decided by one goal35%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.563%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
OTTLeevi Merilainen G · last 5 starts: .876 save %, 3.18 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .905 save %, 2.61 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·COL
Jan 7 at UTAH
last game
Jan 6 at TB
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
OTT·COL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.79
3.3
goals / game
4.0
3.3
goals allowed / game
2.3
20−22
season record
31−11
10−11
home record
17−2
10−11
away record
14−9
L2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
8−2
28.4
shots / game
34.5
55.5
faceoff %
51.4
23.8
hits / game
17.5
13.6
blocked shots / game
13.5
4.8
takeaways / game
4.6
14.4
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

OTT · COL · 83 days
Ottawa SenatorsColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · COL 7−1
Mar 20, 2025at OTTCOL 5 − 1
Oct 27, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 4
Jan 16, 2024at OTTCOL 7 − 4
Dec 21, 2023at COLCOL 6 − 4
Mar 16, 2023at OTTCOL 5 − 4
Jan 14, 2023at COLCOL 7 − 0
Dec 4, 2021at OTTOTT 6 − 5 OT
Nov 22, 2021at COLCOL 7 − 5

OTT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jan 7at UTAH1 − 3L
Jan 5vs DET3 − 5L
Jan 3vs WPG4 − 2W
Jan 1vs WSH4 − 3W
Dec 29, 2025vs CBJ1 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025at TOR5 − 7L
Dec 23, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Dec 21, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025vs CHI6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W

COL · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Jan 6at TB2 − 4L
Jan 4at FLA1 − 2L
Jan 3at CAR5 − 3W
Dec 31, 2025vs STL6 − 1W
Dec 29, 2025vs LA5 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025at VGK6 − 5W
Dec 23, 2025vs UTAH1 − 0W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN5 − 1W
Dec 19, 2025vs WPG3 − 2W
Dec 16, 2025at SEA5 − 3W