bayesRatings

Jets at Senators

NHL · Saturday, Jan 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Canadian Tire Centre · Final WPG 2 – OTT 4
← NHL / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WPG1012
OTT1214
Team box
WPG·OTT
23
shots
27
0 of 4
power play
2 of 5
58.9
faceoff %
41.1
18
hits
20
7
blocked shots
19
10
penalty minutes
18
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Thomas ChabotOTT202
Kyle ConnorWPG112
Claude GirouxOTT103
Drake BathersonOTT103
Adam LowryWPG102
Brady TkachukOTT013
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Connor HellebuyckWPG2723.852
Leevi MerilainenOTT2321.913

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OTT +3
WPG +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: OTT 2 · WPG 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WPG 48%, OTT 52% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
OTT 3.0 – 3.0 WPG
Expected total
6.0
JetsThe matchupSenators
+108Our fair odds−108
3.0Expected goals3.0
+0.06Power rating−0.03
2.9Goals / game3.3
3.1Allowed / game3.3
27.2Shots / game28.1
51.2Faceoff %55.7
23.0Hits / game24.0
15−24Season record19−20
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WPG chance · OTT chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WPGWinnipeg Jets+10848%————
OTTOttawa Senators−10852%————
Spreadabout even
WPGWinnipeg JetsPKour margin————
OTTOttawa SenatorsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: <1%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 2%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 6%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 11%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 10%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 19%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 24%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 9%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 11%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 5%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%
← WPG wins byOTT wins by →
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more28%
Ottawa Senators wins by 3 or more18%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WPGConnor Hellebuyck G · last 5 starts: .858 save %, 3.05 GAAstarted
OTTLeevi Merilainen G · last 5 starts: .864 save %, 3.62 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WPG·OTT
Jan 1 at TOR
last game
Jan 1 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
WPG·OTT
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
2.9
goals / game
3.3
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.3
15−24
season record
19−20
8−10
home record
9−10
7−14
away record
10−10
L8
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
6−4
27.2
shots / game
28.1
51.2
faceoff %
55.7
23.0
hits / game
24.0
14.7
blocked shots / game
13.5
4.1
takeaways / game
4.9
14.6
giveaways / game
14.4

Rating Trend

WPG · OTT · 78 days
Winnipeg JetsOttawa Senators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · OTT 3−6
Dec 15, 2025at WPGOTT 3 − 2 OT
Feb 26, 2025at OTTWPG 4 − 1
Dec 28, 2024at WPGWPG 4 − 2
Mar 30, 2024at WPGOTT 3 − 2
Jan 20, 2024at OTTWPG 2 − 1 OT
Jan 21, 2023at OTTWPG 5 − 1
Dec 20, 2022at WPGWPG 5 − 1
Apr 10, 2022at OTTWPG 4 − 3
Mar 24, 2022at WPGOTT 5 − 2

WPG · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Jan 1at TOR5 − 6L
Dec 31, 2025at DET1 − 2L
Dec 29, 2025vs EDM1 − 3L
Dec 27, 2025vs MIN3 − 4L
Dec 21, 2025at UTAH3 − 4L
Dec 19, 2025at COL2 − 3L
Dec 17, 2025at STL0 − 1L
Dec 15, 2025vs OTT2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs WSH5 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025vs BOS3 − 6L

OTT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 1vs WSH4 − 3W
Dec 29, 2025vs CBJ1 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025at TOR5 − 7L
Dec 23, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Dec 21, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025vs CHI6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025at WPG3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at CBJ6 − 3W